???? 據(jù)3月3日FX Empire報道，埃克森美孚將于周三美國股市開盤前舉行2021年投資者日活動，隨后，歐佩克+將宣布其產(chǎn)量決定。
????這些關鍵事件是全球石油行業(yè)前景的關鍵晴雨表。在這些關鍵事件發(fā)生之前，埃克森美孚的股價一直在上漲，到2021年為止上漲了36%。在1月中旬形成技術上的“黃金交叉”后，該股自去年11月以來的上行趨勢依然堅挺。然而，由于其14天相對強弱指數(shù)(RSI)接近超買區(qū)域，該股一旦達到70的臨界點，就很容易下挫。
????埃克森美孚投資者日的主要考慮因素為，當埃克森美孚在2020年舉行投資日時，世界還沒有完全掌握疫情造成的破壞程度。現(xiàn)在，大約12個月過去了，隨著油價驚人的反彈，投資者將急切地想知道埃克森美孚打算如何進軍后疫情時代市場的更多細節(jié)。
????一是，投資策略。
????為了利用油價復蘇的機會而增加資本支出，也可能危及埃克森美孚每年150億美元的巨額股息承諾。該公司最近表示，其現(xiàn)金流足以滿足布倫特原油50美元/桶的股息承諾。
????然而，市場將注意到埃克森美孚2月2日發(fā)布的最新財報。該公司宣布，自1999年合并形成美國最大石油公司以來，2020年首次出現(xiàn)年度凈虧損，也是大約40年來首次出現(xiàn)年度凈虧損。在大型石油公司被遺忘了一年之后，投資者想知道埃克森美孚是否能在強化資產(chǎn)負債表和利用未來機遇所需支出之間取得微妙的平衡，同時還要努力安撫渴望派息的股東。
????二是，碳排放。
????埃克森美孚的歐洲競爭對手，如英國石油公司(BP)、荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)和道達爾(Total)，已經(jīng)開始著手控制石油產(chǎn)量，并在2050年前大幅降低碳排放。相比之下，埃克森美孚顯然不愿效仿競爭對手的環(huán)保議程，因此受到了強烈批評。
????埃克森將在多大程度上實現(xiàn)凈零目標，還有待觀察。有鑒于此，埃克森美孚在本周任命了維權投資者杰夫?烏本(Jeff Ubben)進入董事會，以使該公司更注重環(huán)保，同時成立一個新的業(yè)務部門，專注于低碳排放技術。
????不過，要安撫Engine 1等維權投資者，埃克森美孚可能還需要付出更多。要知道，Engine 1持有超過4億美元的埃克森股票。
????盡管埃克森美孚的投資者日有許多可能撼動其股價的事態(tài)發(fā)展，但大型石油股可能會在第二天迎來更大的波動。
????三是，歐佩克+供應決定迫在眉睫。
????周四，歐佩克+將決定其23個成員國4月的產(chǎn)量水平，下月全球市場可能恢復至多150萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量。這150萬桶包括沙特阿拉伯在2月和3月自愿額外削減的100萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量。
????市場已經(jīng)預計，歐佩克將增加至少50萬桶/天的原油供應，因此，在考慮歐佩克+供應限制措施放松的前景時，油價在最近幾個交易日出現(xiàn)下跌。如果有消息證實，從下個月開始，全球市場將重新涌入150萬桶/天的石油，甚至可能將布倫特原油價格再次拉回到每桶60美元以下的水平，并令今年迄今為止21%的漲幅減少。
????需要澄清的是，這并不是說油價會在本周回落。全球需求復蘇似乎足夠強勁，足以在4月份吸收更多的石油供應。然而，本周將由歐佩克+決定的是供應方面的因素，這可能會決定布蘭特原油價格是否會在會后立即突破60美元/桶。
????歐佩克+的決定不僅會影響布倫特和西德克薩斯中質原油價格，未來幾天還可能影響石油公司的股價。鑒于投資者在未來幾天有很多東西需要消化，這兩件事可能會決定與石油相關的資產(chǎn)在短期內的表現(xiàn)。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 FX Empire
????原文如下：
????Big Week for Big Oil
????Exxon Mobil is set to hold its 2021 Investor Day before US markets open on Wednesday, a day before OPEC+ announces its output decision.
????In the lead up to these key events, which serve as key barometers for the global oil industry’s outlook, Exxon Mobil’s share prices have been on a tear, surging 36% so far in 2021. Having formed a technical “golden cross” in mid-January, the stock’s uptrend since November remains firmly intact. However, with its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) flirting with overbought territory, this stock has been prone to dip once that 70 threshold is reached.
????Key considerations for Exxon Mobil’s Investor Day
????When Exxon held its investor day in 2020, the world had yet to fully realize the full extent of the damage wrought by Covid-19. Now, some 12 months later and with the astonishing recovery in oil prices since, investors will be eager for more details on how Exxon intends to forge ahead into the post-pandemic era:Investment strategy
????Greater capital expenditure, with the aim of taking advantage of the oil price recovery, could also threaten Exxon’s massive pledge of $15 billion in annual dividends. The company stated recently that its cashflow would be enough to meet its dividend commitment at $50 Brent.
????Yet, markets will be cognizant of Exxon’s latest earnings announcement on 2 February, declaring its first annual net loss since its 1999 merger that created the largest US oil company, also its first annual net loss in about 40 years. In the aftermath of a year to forget for Big Oil, investors want to know whether Exxon can get that tricky balance right between strengthening its balance sheet and the spending required to take advantage of future opportunities, all while trying to appease dividend-hungry shareholders.
????Carbon emissions
????Exxon’s European rivals, such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total, are already making the shift to curb oil and drastically lower their carbon emissions by 2050. In contrast, Exxon has been loudly criticized over their apparent reluctance to match their rivals’ adoption of the green agenda.
????It remains to be seen how much Exxon will warm up (no pun intended) to a net-zero carbon goal. With that in mind, Exxon appointed activist investor Jeff Ubben to its board just this week to give Exxon a more environmentally-friendly tilt while also setting up a new business unit to focus on low-emission technologies.
????Still, much more is likely required out of Exxon in order to appease activist investors such as Engine No.1, which holds over $400 million in Exxon shares.
????While Exxon Mobil’s Investor Day holds plenty of potential developments to rock its share prices, more volatility could be in store for Big Oil stocks the day after.
????OPEC+ supply decision looms
????On Thursday, OPEC+ is set to decide on the output levels for its 23 members for April, and could restore as much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) back into global markets next month. That 1.5 million figure includes Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cuts of 1 million bpd that had been implemented throughout February and March.
????Markets are already expecting the alliance to ease at least 500,000 bpd back into the world, hence the declines in oil benchmarks in recent sessions as they ponder the prospects of OPEC+ taps being loosened. Confirmation that a full 1.5 million bpd being flooded back into global markets starting next month could even drag Brent back to sub-$60 levels once more, and pare down its 21% in year-to-date gains.
????To be clear, this isn’t to suggest we could see oil prices capitulate this week. The global demand recovery appears robust enough to absorb more incoming barrels of oil in April. However, it’s the supply side of the equation as will be determined by OPEC+ this week that could determine whether Brent above $60/bbl is warranted in the immediate aftermath.
????The decision by OPEC+ wouldn’t just impact Brent and WTI crude prices, but is also likely to feed into the stock prices of oil companies over the coming days. With investors having plenty to digest over the next couple of days, this pair of events could dictate how oil-linked assets perform over the immediate term.
