???? 據今日油價3月9日報道，歐佩克+決定將目前的減產延期至3月底，這一決定令石油市場感到意外，因為這與該組織去年12月宣布的將油價推高至每桶60美元以上的計劃不同。
????上周原油價格上漲，收于每桶65-70美元區間。對全球經濟復蘇速度的擔憂似乎是歐佩克+將產量增幅保持在最低水平的主要推動力之一。在歐佩克+會議召開的兩周前，沙特能源部長已經表達了他對全球經濟的持續擔憂，他指出，在當前的油價下，石油生產國者們因保持謹慎。
????另一個需要考慮的因素是，自去年5月以來，歐佩克已經有近500萬桶/天的產量退出了市場。如果將任何一桶原油運回本國，都可能導致油價跌至每桶60美元以下，減少成員國的現金流，從而失去補償疫情期間損失的機會。
????關鍵支柱是將沙特4月額外減產的100萬桶/天的決定延期，以及俄羅斯13萬桶日產量增加的豁免，這可能支持了歐佩克達成共識。
????此外，歐佩克+并不認為隨著油價持續上漲，美國頁巖油產量會增加，這讓生產商有機會彌補收入損失，同時保持其市場份額。要想讓頁巖油卷土重來，需要幾方面:
????1.石油需求回到疫情前的水平。
????2.當前價格在較長一段時間內保持在持續水平。這對于恢復對頁巖行業投資的信心，同時將風險最小化來說是至關重要的。上周美國能源信息報署的報告顯示，美國石油日產量為1000萬桶，比一年前的水平低310萬桶。在目前的生產情景下，由于市場過度緊縮的前景、全球疫苗接種率的增加以及某些國家恢復危機前正常狀態的可能性越來越大，預計3月份價格將超過每桶70美元。美國的燃料需求目前正在改善，尤其是汽油和煤油的需求分別增加了94.2萬桶/天和30.5萬桶/天，分別為815萬桶/天和129萬桶/天。
????美國石油進口也在上升，而出口幾乎沒有變化，這表明在全國產量下降的情況下，需求在上升。冰凍天氣的影響在煉油方面仍可看到，據最新報道，煉油廠的原油日產量為990萬桶，比去年的正常水平下降了570萬桶。汽油庫存減少了1360萬桶，滿足了大部分汽油需求的增長。未來幾周，隨著墨西哥灣煉油廠重新開始運營，應該會有所改善。
????上周末，美國參議院批準了一項1.9萬億美元的一攬子救助計劃，預計該計劃將加劇投機驅動的價格通脹。似乎價格水平、遠期曲線似乎并不足以推動歐佩克決定放松減產, 或許隨著全球經濟的進一步開放、航班增加以及疫苗接種的推進，那么歐佩克+將可能放松削減，以滿足2021年第二季度某個時候可能出現的需求增長。
????上周，歐佩克+會議取得了一些意想不到的結果，很難預測4月份及以后的下一步行動?，F在有兩個驅動力，歐佩克+的減產和同樣重要的沙特的自愿減產。一般來說，隨著油價持續上漲們預計供應商將愿意增加產量，但歐佩克供應商何時能被說服增產仍極不確定。
????即使歐佩克+在4月份同意增產，沙特仍可能不會急于放松自愿減產。沙特能源部長的聲明在上一次記者招待會上證實了這一點，并暗示這些減產可能會持續到2021年第二季度，而且這些石油產量將分階段放出。這表明，油價將不僅受到歐佩克+減產的支撐，也將受到沙特在2021年第2季度自愿額外減產的支撐。本周，布倫特原油價格一度突破每桶70美元。隨著石油市場再次趨緊，石油的地緣政治風險溢價似乎又出現了。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
????原文如下：
????Saudi Surprise Cut May Have Lasting Effect On Oil Prices
????The OPEC+ decision to roll over current cuts till the end of March has come as a surprise to the oil markets as it is different from the group's plan announced last December which has sent oil prices above $60.
????Crude prices rallied last week to end in the $65-$70 range. Concerns about the speed of recovery of the global economy seemed to be one of the major drivers for OPEC+ to keep production increases to a minimum. The Saudi Energy Minister already voiced his ongoing concerns about the global economy two weeks before the OPEC+ meeting, and he pointed out that producers need not be complacent under current prices.
????Another factor to consider is the fact that almost 5 million bpd of OPEC production has been off the markets since May last year. Bringing any of these barrels back could have triggered prices to fall below $60, reducing cash flows for its members, and resulting in losing the opportunity to compensate for losses made during the pandemic.
????One of the key pillars of support is the rollover of the Saudi million bpd surprise cut in April, and the exemption of Russia to raise production by 130,000 bpd which may have supported the group to reach a consensus.
????Furthermore, OPEC+ is not expecting US shale to boost production as prices continue to rise, giving producers an opportunity to compensate for lost revenues while preserving their market share. For shale oil to come back we need (1) to have oil demand returning to pre-pandemic levels, and (2) a sustained level of current prices over an extended period of time. This will be essential to restoring confidence in investing into the shale industry while minimizing risks. Last week’s EIA report showed the US production at 10 million bpd, 3.1 million bpd below its level a year ago. Under the current production scenarios, prices are expected to trade above $70 in March supported by prospects of market over-tightening, the increasing rate of global vaccination, and the increasing likelihood of certain countries returning to pre-crisis normality. Fuel demand in the US is currently improving, especially gasoline and kerosene whose demand rose by 942,000 bpd and 305,000 bpd w/w, respectively, to stand at 8.15 million bpd and 1.29 million bpd, respectively.
????US oil imports are also rising, while exports are almost unchanged, suggesting rising demand amid decreasing national production. The impact of the freeze is still observed on the refining side, as the crude input to refineries was last reported to be 9.9 million bpd, reflecting a drop of 5.7 million bpd below its normal level last year. Most of the rise in gasoline demand was met using gasoline stocks which declined by 13.6 million barrels w/w. These numbers should improve in the weeks ahead as refineries on the Gulf of Mexico restart their operations.
????Last weekend, the US senate has approved a $1.9 trillion relief package which is expected to increase speculation-driven price inflation. It seems price levels and even forward curves do not seem sufficient to drive an OPEC decision on easing cuts, and perhaps as we see a greater opening of global economies, an uptick in flight movements, and advancing vaccination campaigns, then OPEC+ will likely be easing cuts to meet demand growth which may happen at some point in Q-2 2021.
????Last week, the OPEC+ meeting saw some unexpected results, and it is very hard to predict the next move in April and beyond. Now we have two drivers, the OPEC+ cuts and equally important the Saudi voluntary cuts. Generally, we would expect suppliers to be willing to increase production as prices continue to grow, yet when OPEC suppliers will be convinced to do so remains highly uncertain.
????Even if OPEC+ agrees on a production hike in April, Saudi Arabia will likely still not be in a hurry to ease Its voluntary cuts immediately. Statements from the Saudi Energy Minister did confirm that at the last press conference, suggesting that these cuts may continue throughout Q-2 2021, and that these barrels will be brought back in a phased manner. This suggests that prices will be supported by not only the OPEC+ cuts, but also by Saudi voluntary cuts during Q-2 2021. This week, Brent has briefly traded above $70, as a result of rising tensions in the Middle East, caused by Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura facilities over the weekend. It seems then that the geopolitical risk premium in oil is back as oil markets are growing tighter once again.
