???? 據(jù)石油新聞2021年3月7日迪拜報(bào)道，阿布扎比商業(yè)銀行稱，由于歐佩克+聯(lián)盟3月4日決定在4月份保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的原油供應(yīng)，布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)在2021年將平均為65.5美元/桶，2022年為67美元/桶，“石油市場(chǎng)將趨緊”。
????阿布扎比商業(yè)銀行在3月7日的一份報(bào)告中表示，“這不僅是由于4月份的產(chǎn)量決定，也是由于預(yù)期歐佩克+聯(lián)盟可能會(huì)放慢去年4月為應(yīng)對(duì)新冠病毒危機(jī)而宣布的減產(chǎn)步伐。” 阿布扎比商業(yè)銀行在1月27日的一份報(bào)告中曾預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格將為54.7美元/桶，2022年將為60美元/桶。
????在歐佩克+會(huì)議上，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣薩勒曼王子表示，沙特阿拉伯不會(huì)急于取消其承諾的自愿減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶/天的計(jì)劃。“我們現(xiàn)在相信，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟將對(duì)需求的回升做出更積極的反應(yīng)，并將重點(diǎn)放在進(jìn)一步的再平衡上。因此，我們現(xiàn)在看到石油市場(chǎng)趨緊，包括庫(kù)存進(jìn)一步下降。”
????控制著全球約一半原油產(chǎn)能的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟將基本維持其配額，俄羅斯被允許日增13萬(wàn)桶，哈薩克斯坦被允許日增2萬(wàn)桶。如果算上沙特阿拉伯每天停止供應(yīng)的100萬(wàn)桶，這意味著歐佩克+聯(lián)盟將把大約800萬(wàn)桶/天的原油產(chǎn)量(約占新冠肺炎疫情大流行前供應(yīng)量的8%)再禁售一個(gè)月。
????布倫特原油價(jià)格在歐佩克+3月4日會(huì)議后大幅上漲，至每桶69.40美元。
????李峻 編譯自 石油新聞
????原文如下：
????UAE bank raises oil price forecasts above $65/b with 'tighter' market seen
????Brent crude prices are expected to average $65.50/b in 2021 and $67/b in 2022, with a "tighter oil market" seen following the March 4 OPEC+ decision to keep supply relatively steady for April, according to Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.
????"This is not only on the back of the April production decision, but also on the expectation that OPEC+ could taper the production cuts announced in April 2020 in response to the COVID crisis much more slowly than originally indicated," ADCB said in a March 7 report. The bank in a Jan. 27 report had forecast Brent at $54.70/b for 2021 and $60/b for 2022.
????At the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman indicated no rush to reverse the voluntary 1 million b/d cut promised by the kingdom. "We now believe that OPEC+ will be more responsive to a pickup in demand, with a focus on further rebalancing. Thus, we now see a tighter oil market, including a greater drawdown in inventories," the bank said.
????The OPEC+ alliance, which controls about half of the world's production capacity, will mostly maintain its quotas, with Russia allowed a 130,000 b/d increase and Kazakhstan a 20,000 b/d rise. Including the 1 million b/d staying offline from Saudi Arabia, this means the group will keep about 8 million b/d of crude production, or roughly 8% of pre-pandemic supply, off the market for another month.
????Oil prices rose sharply after the OPEC+ meeting with Brent at $69.40/b.
