???? 據3月15日今日油價報道，南非解除頁巖氣勘探禁令已經近10年了，但這個資源豐富的國家的頁巖氣產業潛力從未真正被挖掘。人們對廣闊的半沙漠地區卡魯盆地給予了極大的關注和期望，但在過去十年中，對有潛力的鉆井者來說，一系列關于頁巖氣前景的研究顯示，結果越來越令人失望。早在2017年，一篇題為《南非頁巖氣:游戲規則的改變者還是默默無聞》的文章似乎傾向卡魯盆地中部地區的天然氣儲量上限非常低——大約為20萬億立方英尺。事實上，20萬億立方英尺大約是南非煤炭儲量的四十分之一。與非洲其他天然氣儲量相比，莫桑比克的常規海上天然氣儲量也相形見絀，據估計，莫桑比克的常規海上天然氣儲量為75萬億立方英尺。

????Robert Scholes表示：“在南非發現一個有價值的天然氣藏，即使規模很小，也有可能改變一個國家的能源經濟。但是，在基礎設施、監管工具、檢測機構和井場開發方面進行大量投資，來獲得可能不存在的資源，這在財政、政治和環境方面都存在風險。”

????但現在，在將近四年后的今天，卡魯盆地再次回到了人們的視野中，頁巖投資者再次找到了值得樂觀的東西。首先，情況已經發生了變化，隨著天然氣成為一種需求日益旺盛的資源，預計未來幾年全球需求將快速增長。根據國際能源機構(IEA)的預測，未來五年，全球對天然氣的需求每年將超過煤炭和石油1.6%。這種增長是由多種因素共同推動的，包括充足的供應、相對低的價格，以及天然氣的碳排放比石油或煤炭要少，作為化石燃料其對環境更有利。由于這些原因，天然氣將成為最后一種需求達到峰值的主要化石燃料，并在本世紀中葉成為世界主要能源。

????因此，歷史上一直依賴煤炭的非洲正在尋找進入頁巖氣領域的途徑，這也就不足為奇了。卡魯地區再次處于一些倡議的聚焦點。不僅是卡魯盆地，最近在南非南部海岸發現的凝析油也重新燃起了在該地區發展更強勁的天然氣產業的熱情。南非的天然氣生產是上周非洲天然氣論壇的主要主題之一。

????更重要的一點是，20萬億立方英尺的估計可能是錯的。自2017年以來，其他報告的估計引用的上限數字接近200萬億立方英尺。即使實際可開采的天然氣只有這個數字的一半，頁巖氣也可能徹底改變南非和整個非洲大陸的游戲規則。在歷史上，南非能源行業每年的投資缺口達500億美元。

????將南非大部分未開發的天然氣資源引入全球市場將對南非的經濟產生重大影響，同時也可能對整個世界產生重大影響。這可能會帶來一些積極的外部影響，可以增加天然氣的供應，削弱石油和煤炭等對氣候造成更大破壞的能源使用。然而，盡管天然氣更有利于環境，但政府間氣候變化專門委員會的專家們表示，僅僅是更好的能源選擇還是不夠的，為了避免氣候變化帶來的最壞影響，天然氣開采在這十年必須減少。為了讓非洲最終在全球能源市場中獲得一席之地，最好不要將目光僅僅停留在卡魯地區，而是開始吸引綠色技術的投資，以便在一個以可再生能源為主導的未來站穩腳跟。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

????原文如下：

????South Africa Hopes To Become The Next Big Shale Success Story

????It’s been nearly a decade since South Africa lifted a freeze on shale gas exploration, but the resource-rich nation’s potential ensuing shale revolution never quite materialized. Much attention and expectations have been bestowed upon the vast, semi-desert region called the Karoo basin, but a series of studies on the potential shale play over the past decade have shown increasingly disappointing results for prospective drillers. Back in 2017, in an article in The Conversation delightfully titled “Shale gas in South Africa: game-changer or damp squib?,” seemed to lean far toward the damp squib end of the spectrum, pointing out that recent estimates had shown the upper limit of gas reserves in the Central Karoo as discouragingly low--around 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf)--what the author referred to as “trillion cubic feet (tcf).” In fact, it’s about one fortieth of the size of South Africa’s coal reserves. It’s also dwarfed by other natural gas reserves in Africa--Mozambique’s conventional offshore gas reserves hold an estimated 75 tcf.

????“A viable gas find in South Africa, even if quite small, would potentially transform the national energy economy,” Robert Scholes wrote in The Conversation. “But making a large investment in infrastructure, regulatory tools, monitoring bodies, and wellfield development for a resource which may not exist is financially, politically and environmentally risky.”

????But now, nearly four years later, the Karoo is back in the headlines, and shale speculators are once again finding something to be optimistic about. For starters, the context has changed as natural gas becomes an increasingly in-demand resource, with global demand projected to grow at a brisk clip in coming years. According to projections compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for natural gas is on track to outpace both coal and oil by 1.6% each year for the next five years. This growth is being catalyzed by a confluence of factors including plentiful supply, accordingly low prices, and natural gas’ environmental benefits as a less emissions-intensive fossil fuel than oil or coal. For these reasons, gas is going to be the last major fossil fuel to experience peak demand, and will more than likely be the world’s primary energy source toward the middle of this century.

????So it’s no wonder that Africa, which has historically been reliant on coal, is looking for ways to break into the shale gas game, and the Karoo has once again found itself at the center of some of those initiatives. And not only the Karoo--a recent gas condensate discovery off the southern coast of South Africa has also renewed enthusiasm for developing a more robust natural gas sector in the region. Natural gas production in South Africa was one of the major themes at last week’s Africa Gas Forum.

????And then there’s the fact that the 20 trillion cubic feet estimate might be off--WAY off. Other estimates reported since that 2017 dismissal are citing upper limit numbers closer to 200 trillion cubic feet. Even if the actual extractable gas is merely half that amount, shale gas could be a complete game-changer for South Africa and the African continent as a whole, which has historically experienced a monumentally limiting $50 billion energy sector investment gap each year.

????Bringing South Africa’s largely untapped gas resources into the global market would have major implications for the domestic economy, but could also have major implications for the entire world. It may have some positive externalities, adding to the supply of natural gas and undercutting more climate-damaging resources like oil and coal. While natural gas is better, however, experts in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say that better isn’t good enough, and natural gas extraction will have to be scaled back this decade in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. In order for Africa to finally get a seat at the table in global energy markets, they would do well not to stop at the Karoo, but start attracting investment for green technologies as well in order to get a foothold in a more renewable future.