???? 據油價網2021年3月25日倫敦報道，美國石油鉆井工人不再坐在戰壕里，等待大流行病的風暴過去。達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行第一季度能源調查結果顯示，新冠肺炎確證病例數再次進入增長模式。達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行能源調查的受訪者表示，由于油價反彈，石油領域的活動正在擴大。而且業務活動指數正在強勁擴大：從去年第四季度的僅為18.5，到今年第一季度飆升至53.6。

????這個數據支持了來自其他機構的證據：在用鉆機數量正在穩步上升。石油產量也是如此：根據美國能源信息署(EIA)發布的最新一期每周報告，在3月26日結束的一周里，美國石油產量平均為1100萬桶/天。這仍然比去年同期的平均水平低200萬桶/天，但高于前一周的平均水平和截至3月19日的四周平均水平。這些跡象似乎表明了歐佩克最擔憂的事情：美國頁巖油生產正在回歸。

????達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行在調查報告中稱，資本支出正在回升，該指數從去年第四季度的12.5升至31。此外，油氣行業對未來也很樂觀，計劃明年進一步增加支出。

????達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行表示，還有一點壞消息，成本也在上升。另一方面，由于鉆井活動的恢復，工作正在重返石油行業，主要是油田服務行業。第一季度，油田服務行業的就業指數為23.5，而勘探和生產行業的就業指數僅為1。

????回到成本問題上：受訪者表示，在二疊紀盆地(特拉華州盆地除外)鉆一口新井將在53美元/桶的油價下實現收支平衡。而去年這個時候是49美元。調查顯示，二疊紀地區一口井的盈虧平衡價格為50美元，比去年高出1美元。

????然而，在特拉華州盆地和二疊紀遠景區的米德蘭部分以及鷹福特遠景區鉆一口新井的盈利成本較低，分別為49美元、46美元和46美元。現有井的盈利水平要低得多。

????因此，美國的鉆井公司重新開始鉆探，西德克薩斯中質原油的價格明顯高于盈虧平衡點，即使是在頁巖開采成本最高的地區。

????歐佩克會怎么做?

????一位業內高管表示，“雖然油價上漲一直是一個令人高興的消息，但歐佩克+是一把達摩克利斯之劍：如果美國運營商提高資本支出，歐佩克+將打開其閘門，讓原油大量涌入市場。“目前緊張局勢有所緩和。”

????在他們的價格預測中，業內人士對西德克薩斯中質原油的平均價格預測為每桶61.13美元。而上個季度的平均價格為49.77美元。對油價的預測區間也很有說服力:從每桶45美元的低位到每桶85美元的高位，預測區間各不相同，反映出對油價樂觀情緒的回歸。去年全球石油行業是受新冠肺炎疫情打擊最嚴重的行業之一。

????這種樂觀情緒在一定程度上是由于人們預期美國政府的新能源政策將導致石油供應趨緊，而石油供應趨緊將自動推高油價。

????李峻 編譯自 油價網

????原文如下：

????OPEC’s Biggest Fear Is Becoming A Reality

????U.S. oil drillers are no longer sitting in the trenches, waiting for the pandemic storm to pass. They are once again in growth mode, according to the first-quarter energy survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve. As oil prices rebound, activity in the oil patch is expanding, respondents to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey said. And it is expanding strongly: from a reading of just 18.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, the business activity index of the survey soared as high as 53.6 over the first quarter of this year.

????The data supports evidence from other agencies: the number of active drilling rigs is steadily rising. So is production: according to the latest weekly report by the Energy Information Administration, oil production last week averaged 11 million bpd. That’s still 2 million bpd below the average for this time last year, but above the average for a week earlier and the four-week average for the period ending on March 19. The signs seem to point to what OPEC feared the most: U.S. shale is returning.

????Capital spending is returning, the Dallas Fed reported in its survey. From an index of 12.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, it has now gone up to 31. What’s more, the industry is upbeat about the future, too, planning to boost spending further next year.

????In a bit of bad news, costs are also on the rise, the Dallas Fed said. On the flip side, jobs are returning to the oil patch, mostly in oilfield services, thanks to renewed drilling activity. The index for OFS jobs stood at 23.5 in the first quarter, although for exploration and production companies, it stood at just 1.

????Back to costs: respondents in the survey said drilling a new well in the Permian (except the Delaware Basin) would breakeven at $53/barrel. This compares with $49 this time last year. The breakeven price for a well in the Permian, according to the survey, stood at $50, which was $1 higher than last year.

????Yet the costs of profitably drilling a new well were lower in the Delaware Basin and the Midland part of the Permian play, as well as in the Eagle Ford play, at $49, $46, and $46, respectively. The profitability levels for existing wells were much lower.

????So, U.S. drillers are back to drilling, with West Texas Intermediate comfortably higher than breakeven prices, even in the costliest parts of the shale patch. What would OPEC do?

????“While the price increases have been welcome news, OPEC+ is a sword of Damocles: if U.S. operators raise capital expenditures, OPEC+ will open its taps and flood the market,” one industry executive said. “There is a tense detente currently.”

????This tense détente will likely continue as OPEC cannot really afford to open its taps right now—not when oil prices are still lower than what Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget. If the respondents in the Dallas Fed survey are right, they will continue to be lower for a while longer.

????In their price forecasts, industry insiders gave an average price projection for West Texas Intermediate of $61.13 per barrel. This compared with an average of $49.77 last quarter. The range of price forecasts was telling, too: projections varied from a low of $45 per barrel to a high of $85 per barrel, reflecting the return of price optimism in one of the industries that suffered the worst blow from the pandemic.

????The optimism is in part fuelled by expectations that Biden administration policies will lead to tighter oil supply, which will automatically push prices higher