???? 據(jù)離岸工程網(wǎng)站5月27日消息 研究咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲周四表示，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇停滯，日本和韓國的核燃料和煤炭競爭能力擴(kuò)大，明年亞洲液化天然氣需求增長將放緩。

????伍德麥肯茲液化天然氣短期、天然氣和液化天然氣研究主管羅伯特?西姆斯在一份報(bào)告中表示，預(yù)計(jì)2022年亞洲液化天然氣需求將增長1200萬噸/年，低于2021年的1900萬噸/年增長。

????他補(bǔ)充說：“隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇放緩，亞洲的液化天然氣需求增長將放緩，日本和韓國的煤炭和核產(chǎn)能將增加，印度將有更多的離岸國內(nèi)供應(yīng)。”

????同時(shí)，由于美國的Sabine Pass 6號(hào)線和Calcasieu Pass項(xiàng)目以及印度尼西亞的Tangguh 3號(hào)線新增了液化天然氣供應(yīng)，全球液化天然氣供應(yīng)量將增加1800萬噸/年。這意味著，歐洲每年將有約600萬至700萬噸液化天然氣可供使用，比2021年增加9%。

????盡管如此，西姆斯表示，明年塑造歐洲市場動(dòng)態(tài)的關(guān)鍵將是從俄羅斯到德國的北溪 2號(hào)管道的擴(kuò)建，該管道的年輸送能力為550億立方米，預(yù)計(jì)將于今年冬天投產(chǎn)。

????“2022年價(jià)格可能會(huì)走軟，但市場基本面顯示，到2025年，全球液化天然氣市場將進(jìn)一步收緊，”他說。

????“隨著亞洲液化天然氣需求持續(xù)增加，全球液化天然氣供應(yīng)增長將放緩，大西洋液化天然氣的競爭將加劇，減少歐洲的液化天然氣供應(yīng)?！?/p>

????伍德麥肯茲預(yù)計(jì)，今年夏季，盡管全球液化天然氣供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將比去年同期增加1600萬噸/年，但對(duì)補(bǔ)充庫存的需求和強(qiáng)勁的煤改氣經(jīng)濟(jì)將支撐整個(gè)夏季的歐洲天然氣價(jià)格。

????西姆斯說：“冬季市場將越來越緊張。”

????“歐洲冬季開始庫存減少，加上亞洲季節(jié)性需求旺盛，將導(dǎo)致大西洋液化天然氣（包括美國液化天然氣）競爭加劇，對(duì)液化天然氣價(jià)格構(gòu)成壓力?！?/p>

????吳恒磊 編譯自 離岸工程

????原文如下：

????LNG Demand in Asia to Slow Down Next Year

????Liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand growth in Asia will slow down next year as the economic recovery stagnates and the capacity of competing fuels nuclear and coal expand in Japan and South Korea, research consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.

????LNG demand in Asia is expected to rise by 12 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) in 2022, down from the 19 mmtpa growth in 2021, Robert Sims, head of Woodmac's LNG short-term, gas and LNG research, said in a note.

????"LNG demand growth in Asia will slow down as the economic recovery decelerates, coal and nuclear capacity will increase in Japan and South Korea and more offshore domestic supply will be available in India," he added.

????At the same time, global LNG supply will grow by 18 mmtpa because of new supply from the Sabine Pass Train 6 and Calcasieu Pass projects in the United States and Indonesia's Tangguh Train 3, he said. This will mean that there will be about 6 to 7 mmtpa of more LNG available for Europe, which will be 9% more than in 2021.

????Still, the key to shaping market dynamics in Europe next year will be the ramp up of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, with capacity of 55 billion cubic metres per year, from Russia to Germany, Sims said, adding that it is expected to be commissioned this winter.

????"Prices might soften in 2022, but market fundamentals point towards a further tightening of the global LNG market through to 2025," he said.

????"With LNG demand in Asia continuing to increase and global LNG supply growth set to slow down, competition for Atlantic LNG will intensify, reducing LNG availability to Europe."

????For this year, Wood Mackenzie expects demand for restocking and strong coal-to-gas switching economics to support European gas prices through the summer despite global LNG supply expected to increase by 16 mmtpa in the summer, compared with the same period last year.

????"Winter will see market dynamics getting increasingly tighter," Sims said.

????"Lower winter starting inventory in Europe, combined with high seasonal Asian demand, will result in increased competition for Atlantic LNG, including from the U.S., putting pressure on LNG prices".