據(jù)道瓊斯7月7日消息，杰富瑞公司在一份報告中表示，預(yù)計2025年前，全球液化天然氣（LNG）的需求將超過供應(yīng)，荷蘭皇家殼牌和道達(dá)爾能源最有可能從這個供不應(yīng)求的市場中受益。

　　杰富瑞公司估計，2030年前全球LNG消費(fèi)量將以年均5%的復(fù)合速度增長，2030年代將放緩至年均2%的復(fù)合速度增長。這將受到新的亞洲進(jìn)口國、中國需求的持續(xù)高增長以及新的運(yùn)輸燃料應(yīng)用的推動。

　　杰富瑞公司分析師表示:“我們認(rèn)為，天然氣是發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的關(guān)鍵過渡燃料，印度和中國是最大的增長驅(qū)動力，超過了歐洲、日本和北美需求下降的影響。”

　　杰富瑞公司表示，再加上2021年和2022年投產(chǎn)的項目有限，這應(yīng)該會使全球LNG市場吃緊，現(xiàn)貨LNG價格在中期內(nèi)將保持在較高水平。這將特別有利于殼牌和道達(dá)爾能源等公司，它們在現(xiàn)貨定價方面的能力相對較高，而合同銷售仍受到卡塔爾積極營銷的壓力。

　　杰富瑞表示，在大型能源公司中，殼牌擁有最好的LNG業(yè)務(wù)。這家英荷集團(tuán)擁有最大的產(chǎn)能組合，預(yù)計到2025年，其產(chǎn)能每年將至少增加700萬噸。此外，殼牌的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)較低，在所有綜合石油公司中現(xiàn)貨LNG銷售比例最高。它還擁有最多的LNG運(yùn)輸船，并持有三個再氣化設(shè)施的股權(quán)。

　　道達(dá)爾能源公司被視為緊隨其后的競爭者。然而，杰富瑞表示，在LNG運(yùn)輸能力方面，這家法國公司落后于殼牌。

　　然而，杰富瑞表示，從2025年開始，這種情況應(yīng)該會改變，因?yàn)橐徊椖繉⑼懂a(chǎn)，新增LNG貨物將進(jìn)入市場。這些項目包括殼牌)的加拿大LNG項目、埃克森美孚的Golden Pass項目、俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司(Gazprom)的波羅的海LNG項目以及卡塔爾石油公司的North Field East項目。

　　張春曉 摘譯自 道瓊斯

　　原文如下：

　　Tight LNG Market to Benefit Shell, TotalEnergies

　　Global demand for liquefied natural gas is expected to outpace supply until 2025, and Royal Dutch Shell PLC and TotalEnergies SE are best placed to benefit from this tight market, Jefferies says in a report.

　　LNG consumption should grow at a compound annual rate of 5% through 2030, and at 2% during the 2030s, Jefferies estimates. This will be driven by new Asian importing countries, continued high growth in Chinese demand and new transport fuel applications.

　　"We see gas as a key transition fuel for developing economies with India and China being the biggest growth drivers, more than offsetting demand decline in Europe, Japan and North America," Jefferies analysts say.

　　Combined with limited project start-ups in 2021 and 2022, this should keep the market tight and spot LNG prices at an elevated level in the medium term, the bank says. This will particularly favor companies such as Shell and Total, which have a relatively higher degree of exposure to spot pricing--as opposed to contracted sales which remain under pressure by Qatar's aggressive marketing.

　　Shell has the best LNG business among the big energy companies, according to Jefferies. The Anglo-Dutch group has the largest production capacity portfolio and is expected to increase it by at least 7 million tons a year by the middle of the decade. Moreover, Shell has a low break-even point and the highest proportion of spot LNG sales of all integrated oil companies. It also has the greatest number of LNG carriers and holds equity stakes in three regasification facilities.

　　TotalEnergies is seen as a close second. However, the French company lags behind Shell in terms of LNG shipping capacity and ESG credentials, according to Jefferies.

　　From 2025 onward, however, this should change, as a wave of projects will be commissioned and new volumes will enter the market, Jefferies says. Those include Shell's LNG Canada, Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Golden Pass, Gazprom PJSC's Baltic LNG, and Qatar Petroleum's North Field East.