據油田技術7月21日報道，根據ESAI 能源安全分析公司在其全球燃料五年展望中的疫苗接種分析，到2022年年中，全球約四分之三的石油需求將來自免疫接種已達到60%的國家，并且不應再面臨封鎖或其他影響經濟活動和石油需求的行動的風險。

　　但全球整體需求可能要到2023年中期才會達到這一水平。即便如此，一些國家可能依賴于自然群體免疫而不是疫苗。

　　ESAI審查了前25個石油消費國的疫苗接種趨勢，考察了病例數量、疫苗接種機會、疫苗接種意愿和政府行動，以便預測疫苗接種率。如果在60%的人口接種疫苗或攜帶足夠抗體的情況下，進行有效的國家免疫接種，那么封鎖和減少經濟活動的可能性就會大大降低。風險的減少支持了石油需求的增長。不幸的是，并非所有國家都能輕易實現60%的免疫接種。此外，由于疾病的傳播，有些可能永遠無法達到這一免疫水平，而將依賴自然群體免疫。

　　ESAI公司負責人莎拉 愛默生（Sarah Emerson）表示：“很明顯，隨著疫苗接種率的上升，新冠肺炎疫情對經濟活動的威脅下降，所以我們應該能夠衡量仍然處于風險中的石油需求的數量。我們的分析表明,威脅到全球石油需求還將持續一段時間。”

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 油田技術

　　原文如下：

　　ESAI Energy: global oil demand at risk into 2023

　　According to ESAI Energy’s vaccination analysis in its Five-Year Outlook for Global Fuels, by mid-2022, about three-quarters of global oil demand will come from countries where immunisation (from current COVID variants) has reached 60% and should no longer be at risk of lockdown or other actions that impact economic activity and oil demand.

　　But global demand in its entirety probably will not reach that point until mid-2023. And even then, several countries may rely on natural herd immunity rather than vaccination.

　　ESAI has examined vaccination trends in the top 25 oil-consuming countries, looking at case load, vaccine access, vaccine hesitation and government actions, in order to forecast vaccination rates. If effective national immunisation occurs when 60% of the population is vaccinated or carries sufficient antibodies, at that point, the likelihood of lockdowns and diminished economic activity should drop considerably. This reduction in risk supports oil demand growth. Unfortunately, not all countries are on an easy path to 60% immunisation. Moreover, some may never reach that level of immunisation and will depend on natural herd immunity due to the spread of the disease.

　　“It seems clear that the threat to economic activity declines as vaccination rates rise, so we should be able to measure the volume of oil demand that remains at risk. Our analysis suggests the threat to global oil demand will last a while,” commented Sarah Emerson, ESAI Energy Principal.