? 沙特阿拉伯日前授出賈富拉大氣田的首份大型合同

? 沙特王國的目標是到2030年前成為世界第三大天然氣生產國  

? 沙特阿拉伯在賈富拉大氣田田開采頁巖氣時面臨一系列重大挑戰  

據美國油價網刊發西蒙·沃特金斯博士文章表示，由于沙特計劃在2030年前成為世界上第3大天然氣生產國，甚至可能成為一個天然氣凈出口國，沙特阿拉伯日前授出了賈富拉頁巖氣盆地的第一份大型合同。賈富拉頁巖氣盆地據說是除美國以外的世界上最大的頁巖氣盆地。

這反過來——如果是真實的話——將使沙特阿拉伯能夠實現其預期的目標，即國內需求的一半電力來自天然氣，另一半電力來自可再生能源，從而實現其2060年溫室氣體凈零排放目標。

然而，正如我在關于全球石油市場的新書中深入分析的那樣，沙特阿拉伯過去關于其石油工業的聲明一直被高度夸大，因此，沙特阿拉伯有關其天然氣和凈零項目的評論也應受到懷疑。這再一次證明了這一點——尤其專注于其天然氣和凈零目標——沙特阿拉伯最近被指游說聯合國降低迅速遠離化石燃料的必要性。

寬泛的說，沙特阿拉伯賈富拉頁巖氣盆地地下估計至少蘊藏200萬億標準立方英尺的天然氣，盆地覆蓋面積約為1.7萬平方公里。 主要開發商沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司（沙特阿美）預計，賈富拉大氣田的天然氣日產量將從2024年-2025年的約2億標準立方英尺增加到2030年前的22億標準立方英尺的可持續產量。 此外，這個項目預計還將日產4.18億立方英尺的乙烷和約63萬桶的天然氣液體和凝析油，用于沙特阿拉伯的石化工業。 據沙特阿美稱，該公司的頁巖氣項目將取代大約50萬桶的原油日產量，其中賈富拉開發項目的最高日產量約為30萬桶。 除了日前最初授出的100億美元的合同外，賈富拉開發項目在2030年前還將獲得至少580億美元的投資。 

那么，所有這些措施是否能使沙特阿拉伯實現上述既定目標呢? 答案是否定的。首先，無論是從技術角度還是從成本角度來看，在用于沙特阿拉伯頁巖氣開發的天然氣處理廠建成之前，沙特阿拉伯需要將大量海水脫鹽，這是一個棘手問題。的確，沙特阿拉伯在鉆井行業使用脫鹽設備已有多年，但該國的頁巖氣計劃將是另一種情況。沙特阿美最近要求當地和國際公司投標在賈富拉頁巖氣田建設一個全面的海水淡化廠項目，這就表明了這一點。早些時候的招標要求已被取消，而這一次的招標要求是一個減少20%產能的海水脫鹽廠。 這也是一個事實，根據沙特阿美的數據，賈富拉頁巖氣壓裂作業的深度要比美國頁巖氣壓裂作業的深度深得多，沙特頁巖氣壓裂作業的深度在大約9000到10000英尺，而美國頁巖氣壓裂作業的深度在3000到4000英尺，這使得沙特阿拉伯的頁巖氣壓裂過程更加昂貴。沙特阿美的消息人士表示，這可以通過同時開采其他資源(尤其是乙烷)來部分抵消壓裂成本，但目前這仍是一個推測。

在硬氣體產量方面，還有更多的問題。根據沙特阿美的數據，賈富拉大氣田估計有200萬億立方英尺的頁巖氣儲量，這個數字應該考慮到所有其它能源儲量的估計。與此同時，沙特阿美的天然氣儲量估計約為233.8萬億立方英尺，出于本文分析的目的，我們可以在相同的基礎上假設同樣的情況。沙特阿美計劃在2024年 - 2025年投產賈富拉大氣田，到2036年前達到日產22億標準立方英尺的天然氣。去年，在沒有投產賈富拉大氣田的情況下，沙特阿美日產89億標準立方英尺的天然氣。如加上賈富拉大氣田，這將使沙特阿美名義天然氣日總產量達到111億標準立方英尺。 然而，至關重要的是，即使目前有89億標準立方英尺的天然氣日產量，除了大量的燃料油和柴油，沙特阿拉伯仍在每天燃燒大約40萬桶原油用于發電。

所有其他因素保持相同，10億立方英尺的天然氣相當于16.7萬桶石油當量，所以未來的賈富拉大氣田的22億立方英尺的天然氣日產量就相當于36.74萬桶石油當量或36.74萬桶原油。即使沙特阿美已經提高的天然氣產量保持穩定，這也不足以覆蓋目前沙特阿拉伯用于發電的原油數量(40萬桶/天)。 因此，沙特阿拉伯關于轉向天然氣將對任何凈零溫室氣體排放目標做出有意義的貢獻的聲明是不真實的。根據美國油價網當時的獨家分析，考慮到沙特阿拉伯在達成國際海事組織（IMO）遵守目標方面的雙重協議，這一點就更加明顯。

而沙特阿拉伯聲稱自己將成為這樣一個頁巖氣生產大國，甚至有可能成為主要的天然氣凈出口國，這是怎么回事? 根據獨立行業對沙特阿拉伯人口變化和電力需求模式變化的估計，未來15年內，沙特阿拉伯可能日需大約230億 - 250億立方英尺的天然氣產量，以滿足本國的電力和工業需求。相比之下，沙特阿美目前的天然氣峰值日產量為89億立方英尺，加上賈富拉大氣田的名義產量也只有111億立方英尺。 總之，即使賈富拉發現的天然氣質量在天然氣發現史上是無與倫比的，如果直接從燃燒原油轉變為只燃燒天然氣，沙特阿拉伯的發電部門仍將處于天然氣需求短缺的狀態。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網 

原文如下：

Is Shale Gas A Gamechanger For Saudi Arabia?

·     The first major contracts for Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field were awarded last week

·     The Kingdom aims to become the third-largest natural gas producer in the world by 2030

·     Saudi Arabia faces a number of major challenges in exploiting gas from the Jafurah field

The first major contracts for Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field – supposedly, the biggest shale gas field outside the U.S. – were awarded last week, as the Kingdom aims to become the third largest natural gas producer in the world by 2030, to the point where it could even become a net exporter of gas. This, in turn - if true - would allow Saudi to achieve its supposed aim of producing half of its electricity from gas and half from renewable energy sources in pursuit of its 2060 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target. However, as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, Saudi Arabia’s statements on its oil sector in the past have been highly exaggerated – as without its oil power, the country has no real power at all – and consequently its comments about its gas and net zero projects should also be regarded with scepticism. This was again in evidence - specifically focused on its gas and net zero targets - when Saudi Arabia recently was alleged to have lobbied the United Nations to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels.

In broad terms, the Jafurah shale gas basin is estimated to have at least 200 trillion standard cubic feet (scf) of gas in place, across an area of some 17,000 square kilometres. Production of natural gas from the site is expected by its lead developer, Saudi Aramco, to increase from around 200 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) in 2024/25 to a sustainable rate of 2.2 billion scfd of gas by 2030. In addition, the development is also expected to yield 418 million scfd of ethane and around 630,000 barrels per day of gas liquids and condensates, which are earmarked for use in the Kingdom’s petrochemicals sector. According to Aramco, the company’s shale gas programme will replace around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production, with the Jafurah development accounting for about 300,000 bpd of that at peak production. Over and above the US$10 billion of contracts initially awarded last week, the Jafurah project will see at least another US$58 billion in investment by 2030.

So, will all of this enable Saudi Arabia to achieve its stated targets as above? No, is the short answer. To begin with, there are questions surrounding the sheer volume of seawater that will need to be desalinated before being used in the gas processing plants involved in the Kingdom’s shale gas drive, both from technical and cost perspectives. It is true that the Saudis have been using desalination equipment for many years in the drilling sector but the country’s shale gas initiatives will be of a different order. This was indicated by Aramco’s recent request for bids from local and international companies to build out a full-scale water desalination plant project in the Jafurah shale gas field. An earlier request for bids was cancelled, and the request this time around is for a desalination plant with 20 percent less capacity. It is also a fact that the Jafurah shale gas fracks will occur at much deeper levels than the typically much shallower U.S. equivalents – at around 9,000 to 10,000 feet in the case of Saudi compared to around 3,000 to 4,000 feet in the U.S.’s case – according to Aramco data, making the process a lot more expensive. Aramco sources have stated that this can be offset in part by the other resources concomitantly extracted – notably ethane – but this remains speculative at this point. 

All other factors remaining equal, one billion cubic feet of gas equals 0.167 million barrels of oil equivalent, so 2.2 Bcf/d (the future Jafurah output) equals 0.3674 milliobarrels of oil equivalent, or 367,400 barrels. Therefore, the total projected new amount of gas to come from Jafurah is around 367,400 barrels per day, which is not even enough to cover the current amount of oil being (400,000 bpd) burned for power generation in Saudi Arabia, even if Aramco’s already elevated gas production holds steady. Therefore, Saudi’s statements that this move to gas will meaningfully contribute to any net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets are not true. This is even more obvious when factoring in Saudi’s double-dealings over hitting IMO-compliance targets, as exclusively analysed at the time by OilPrice.com.

And what of Saudi’s claims that it will become such a big producer of shale gas that it may even be able to become a major net exporter of gas? based on independent industry estimates on changing Saudi demographics and corollary changing power demand patterns, the Kingdom will probably need gas production of around 23-25 Bcf/d within the next 15 years just to cover its own power and industrial demand, compared to the 11.1 Bcf/d of Aramco’s current peak production added to the notional production from Jafurah. In sum, then, even if the quality of the Jafurah find is unparalleled in the history of gas finds, then Saudi would still be in deficit in its power generation sector if there was a straight switch from crude oil burning to gas-only burning. 

In terms of hard gas output numbers as well, there are more questions. According to Aramco’s figures, the Jafurah site has an estimated 200 trillion scf, a figure that should be taken in context of all other Saudi energy reserves estimates, but let us assume that it is true. In the meantime, Aramco has gas reserves supposedly of around 233.8 trillion scf, which for the purposes of this analysis, we may assume the same thing on the same basis. The plan is for Aramco to start production from Jafurah in 2024/25 and to reach 2.2 billion scfd of gas by 2036. Last year – without Jafurah - Aramco produced 8.9 billion scfd of natural gas. This would give a notional total – with Jafurah - of 11.1 Bcf/d. Crucially, however, even with this current 8.9 Bcf/d of gas production in place, Saudi has been burning around 400,000 bpd of oil for power generation (on top of enormous actual volumes of fuel oil and diesel).