據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站1月21日消息 美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）周五表示，隨著石油和天然氣鉆探效率的持續(xù)提高以及足夠高的油價(jià)將支持包括煤炭在內(nèi)的所有化石燃料產(chǎn)量的增加，美國(guó)的化石燃料產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在2023年創(chuàng)歷史新高。

在2020年疫情來(lái)襲下降后，化石燃料、天然氣、原油和煤炭的生產(chǎn)總量在2021年上升了2%，達(dá)到了77.14萬(wàn)億英熱單位。美國(guó)政府預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)化石燃料產(chǎn)量今年和明年都將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，超過(guò)2019年的產(chǎn)量水平，并在2023年達(dá)到新的紀(jì)錄。

去年，干氣占美國(guó)化石燃料總產(chǎn)量的最大份額，為46%。原油占30%，煤炭占15%，天然氣液（NGPLs）占9%。EIA稱(chēng)，這些份額將在2023年前保持不變。

政府估計(jì)，去年干氣產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)了2%，并預(yù)測(cè)鉆井效率和新井產(chǎn)量的提高將有助于使2022年的產(chǎn)量增加3%，2023年增加2%。

據(jù)估計(jì)，由于天然氣價(jià)格上漲，發(fā)電需求增加，去年煤炭產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)了7%。今年，隨著燃煤發(fā)電廠重建庫(kù)存水平，煤炭產(chǎn)量將增長(zhǎng)6%。EIA稱(chēng)，到2023年，隨著電力行業(yè)對(duì)煤炭的需求下降，煤炭產(chǎn)量將僅增長(zhǎng)1%。

美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量在2021年下降了1%，2022年將增長(zhǎng)6%，2023年將增長(zhǎng)為5%。

EIA表示：“我們預(yù)測(cè)，2022年和2023年，原油價(jià)格將保持在足夠高的水平，以鼓勵(lì)在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量的增長(zhǎng)和鉆井效率的持續(xù)提高。”

EIA在其1月份的《短期能源展望》（STEO）中表示，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)疫情前的水平，并達(dá)到新的年平均水平，這主要是由于頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量的激增，因?yàn)楦叩膬r(jià)格激勵(lì)生產(chǎn)商鉆更多的井來(lái)抵消下降率。美國(guó)明年的原油平均日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1240萬(wàn)桶。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production Set To Hit Record Highs In 2023

America’s production of fossil fuels is expected to hit a record high in 2023, as continued improvements in drilling efficiency in oil and gas and high enough oil prices will support increased output of all fossil fuels, including coal, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday.

The combined production of fossil fuels—natural gas, crude oil, and coal—rose in 2021 by 2 percent to 77.14 quadrillion British thermal units, following a decline in 2020, when the pandemic hit. The administration expects U.S. fossil fuel production to continue rising both this year and next, exceeding 2019 production levels and reaching a new record in 2023.

Last year, dry natural gas accounted for the largest share, 46 percent, of the total U.S. fossil fuel production. Crude oil accounted for 30 percent, coal for 15 percent, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) for 9 percent. Those shares to remain similar through 2023, the EIA said.

Dry natural gas production rose by 2 percent last year in 2021, the administration estimates, and predicts that improvements in drilling efficiency and new-well production will contribute to production increases of 3 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023.

Coal production last year is estimated to have jumped by 7 percent due to higher demand for electricity generation on the back of rising natural gas prices. This year, coal production is set to rise by 6 percent as coal-fired electricity generators rebuild inventory levels. In 2023, coal production will rise by only 1 percent as demand for coal in the electric power sector declines, the EIA said.

U.S. crude oil production, which fell by 1 percent in 2021, is set for a 6-percent increase in 2022 and another 5 percent rise in 2023.

“We forecast that, in 2022 and 2023, crude oil prices will remain high enough to encourage growth in the number of active drilling rigs and continued improvement in drilling efficiency,” the EIA said.

U.S. crude oil production is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels and reach a new annual average high, driven by a jump in shale output as higher prices incentivize producers to drill more wells to offset decline rates, the EIA said in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). America’s crude oil production is set to average 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year.