石油分析公司Vortexa認(rèn)為：面對(duì)精制石油產(chǎn)品的需求迅速增長，煉油企業(yè)供應(yīng)難以跟上

 亞洲和歐洲的大多數(shù)煉油企業(yè)將在第二季度進(jìn)入煉油廠維護(hù)季

 歐洲天然氣價(jià)格、原油價(jià)格和碳稅成本的上漲，正在擠壓煉油企業(yè)的利潤率

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)2月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)石油分析公司Vortexa的一項(xiàng)最新分析，全球成品油的價(jià)格正在飆升，甚至比原油本身的價(jià)格還要高，因?yàn)槿驅(qū)@些成品油的需求已經(jīng)超出了煉油企業(yè)的承受能力。

精制石油產(chǎn)品的庫存現(xiàn)在接近歷史最低水平——考慮到亞洲和歐洲即將迎來的煉油廠維護(hù)季節(jié)，這些精制石油產(chǎn)品庫存歷史最低水平看起來不會(huì)很快大幅緩解。

亞洲和歐洲的大多數(shù)煉油企業(yè)將在第二季度進(jìn)入煉油廠維護(hù)季節(jié)。 但Vortexa說，到目前為止，沒有跡象表明這些煉油廠計(jì)劃在維修季節(jié)前提高成品油產(chǎn)量，為企業(yè)扭虧為盈提供緩沖。  

這意味著，目前的緊縮政策可能很快會(huì)變得更緊縮。

人們可能會(huì)驚訝地發(fā)現(xiàn)，目前全球成品油的高價(jià)格并沒有吸引煉油企業(yè)提高產(chǎn)量。 但由于天然氣價(jià)格上漲、原油價(jià)格上漲以及歐洲碳稅成本上升，煉油企業(yè)的成本上升，這些都正在吸收額外的衍生利潤。  

在美國，汽油供應(yīng)也很低，而且還在下降，部分原因是第一季度煉油廠和FCC的維護(hù)。

在世界各地，備用煉油產(chǎn)能并不是普遍可以獲得。 據(jù)Vortexa稱，日本是少數(shù)幾個(gè)具有備用煉油產(chǎn)能的國家之一，但在過去兩個(gè)月里，日本的煉油產(chǎn)能也比去年6月提高了40%。 墨西哥也有一些備用煉油產(chǎn)能，但它已經(jīng)多年沒有利用這些備用產(chǎn)能了。

很可能只有成品油價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲，才能吸引墨西哥將部分備用產(chǎn)能重新投入使用。

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Refining Industry Can't Keep Up With Demand

·     Vortexa: quickly rising demand for refined products is proving too much for refiners to keep up with.

·     Most refiners in Asia and Europe enter their refining maintenance season in Q2.

·     Higher natural gas prices, higher crude oil prices, and higher carbon tax costs in Europe are shrinking profit margins for refiners.

The price of global refined products are soaring—even more so than crude oil itself, as demand for those refined products is proving too much for refiners to keep up with, according to a new analysis by Vortexa.

Inventories of refined products are now near historic lows—and given the refining maintenance season that will soon be upon Asia and Europe, it doesn't look that those historical lows are going to ease substantially.

Most refiners in Asia and Europe enter their refining maintenance season in Q2. But so far, Vortexa says, there is no indication that those refineries have plans to ramp up production ahead of maintenance season to provide a cushion to survive turnaround.

What this means is that today's tightening may soon grow even tighter.

One might find it surprising that today's high global refined products prices aren't enticing refiners to up their runs. But higher costs for refiners as a result of higher natural gas prices, higher crude oil prices, and higher carbon tax costs in Europe are sucking up the extra cracks.

In the United States, gasoline supplies are also low—and falling--in part due to refinery and FCC maintenance in Q1.

Around the world, spare refining capacity is not widely available. According to Vortexa, Japan is one of the few countries with refining capacity to spare, but even Japan has, over the last two months, increased run rates by 40% compared to June 2021. Mexico has some spare capacity as well, but it hasn't tapped that capacity in years, and China has spare capacity.

It's likely that only a greater increase in refined products prices could entice Mexico to bring some of that capacity back online.