據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年4月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署（IEA）4月19日表示，由于價(jià)格上漲和軍事沖突造成的市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)中斷，今年全球?qū)μ烊粴獾男枨髮⒙杂邢陆怠?/p>

IEA在其最新季度數(shù)據(jù)中表示，今年全球天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將小幅萎縮，而在1月份公布的上季度數(shù)據(jù)中，IEA預(yù)計(jì)今年全球天然氣需求將增加1%。 

預(yù)估數(shù)量向下修正為1.765萬億立方英尺，大約相當(dāng)于去年美國(guó)液化天然氣（LNG）出口量的一半。去年全球天然氣消費(fèi)量增加4.5%。 

軍事沖突給本已吃緊的天然氣市場(chǎng)，尤其是歐洲的天然氣市場(chǎng)，增添了進(jìn)一步的壓力和不確定性。 雖然目前歐盟還沒有進(jìn)口天然氣的法律限制，但這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)已促使歐盟各國(guó)政府尋求盡快減少對(duì)進(jìn)口化石燃料的依賴。

3月3日，IEA發(fā)布了一份10點(diǎn)計(jì)劃，概述了一系列措施，旨在在一年內(nèi)將歐洲的天然氣進(jìn)口量減少三分之一以上，同時(shí)與歐盟的氣候雄心保持一致。

現(xiàn)貨天然氣價(jià)格已飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，原因是歐洲推動(dòng)天然氣供應(yīng)更加多樣化，加大了對(duì)LNG貨物的需求，其中一些從亞洲轉(zhuǎn)移過來。2021-2022年供暖季期間，亞洲LNG現(xiàn)貨平均價(jià)格是5年平均價(jià)格的4倍多。

在歐洲，盡管冬季氣候溫和，但現(xiàn)貨LNG價(jià)格仍是5年平均水平的5倍。 

Sadamori說：“盡管隨著歐洲減少對(duì)天然氣的依賴，對(duì)LNG供應(yīng)的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已不可避免，但應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)今能源挑戰(zhàn)的最佳和最持久的解決方案將是加快各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的能源效率提高，并加快從化石燃料向低碳能源的轉(zhuǎn)型， 包括國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的低碳?xì)怏w?！?/p>

能源生產(chǎn)大國(guó)是歐洲最大的天然氣供應(yīng)國(guó)，去年滿足該地區(qū)33%的天然氣需求，高于2009年的25%。

今年歐洲的天然氣消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)將下降近6%。在亞洲，今年天然氣消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加3%，比去年的7%明顯放緩。  

預(yù)計(jì)美洲、非洲和中東等地區(qū)受天然氣市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的直接影響較小，因?yàn)檫@些地區(qū)主要依賴國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣生產(chǎn)。但他們?nèi)匀皇艿降鼐壵诬娛聸_突帶來的更廣泛經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的影響，包括大宗商品價(jià)格上漲、購(gòu)買力下降，以及由于商業(yè)信心下降而導(dǎo)致的投資減少。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Global Natural Gas Demand Set To Decline Slightly In 2022

The world’s demand for natural gas is set to decline slightly in 2022 due to higher prices and market disruptions , the International Energy Agency said.

In its latest quarterly update, IEA said that it expected a small contraction in global gas demand compared with its earlier forecast of 1 percent growth in the previous quarterly update published in January.

The downward revision to the forecast amounts to 1.765 trillion cubic feet, the equivalent of about half of last year’s U.S. LNG exports. Global natural gas consumption grew by 4.5 percent in 2021.

It has added further pressure and uncertainty to an already tight natural gas market, especially in Europe. While there are no legal restrictions on importing Russian natural gas to the European Union at this point, the war has pushed EU governments to seek to reduce their dependence on fossil fuel imports as quickly as possible.

The IEA published a 10-Point Plan on March 3 outlining a suite of measures to reduce the volume of gas imports into Europe by over a third within a year while remaining consistent with the EU’s climate ambitions.

Spot gas prices have soared to record highs as Europe’s push for a more diversified natural gas supply has intensified demand for LNG cargoes, with some being diverted away from Asia. Average spot LNG prices in Asia during the 2021-22 heating season were more than four times their five-year average.

In Europe, spot LNG prices were five times their five-year average, despite a mild winter. The prices were also boosted, to drastically reduce short-term gas sales to Europe, which had left European storage levels 17 percent below their five-year average at the start of the European heating season.

“While the stiffer competition for LNG supplies is inevitable as Europe reduces its reliance on Russian gas, the best and most lasting solution to today’s energy challenges would be to accelerate energy efficiency improvements across our economies and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels towards low-carbon sources of energy, including domestically produced low-carbon gases,” Sadamori added.

It is Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, meeting 33 percent of the region’s demand in 2021, up from 25 percent in 2009. 

Natural gas consumption this year is expected to fall by close to 6 percent in Europe. In Asia, it is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2022, a marked slowdown from a growth of 7 percent in 2021.

Regions such as the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East are expected to be affected less directly by gas market volatility, as they principally rely on domestic gas production.

But they are nonetheless being affected by the wider economic impacts including rising commodity prices, weaker purchasing power, and lower investment due to dented business confidence.