據美國彭博新聞社報道，在這個迫切需要更多石油的世界，位于美國西得克薩斯州和新墨西哥州東南部塵土飛揚的地區是可以提供更多石油的地方之一。但即便原油價格每桶超過100美元，二疊紀盆地和美國其他頁巖盆地的生產商仍在踩剎車。

在過去十年的大部分時間里，美國二疊紀盆地是一部無法停止的鉆井機器。二疊紀盆地龐大、低成本的石油儲量，幫助美國轉變為世界上舉足輕重的石油供應國，一旦油價飆升，美國石油生產商就會增加產量；一旦油價暴跌，他們就會停止生產。由于頁巖生產商積累了大量幾周內就能開發的井，原油價格上漲肯定會引發水力壓裂熱潮，這將有助于補充全球庫存，為油價降溫。

但這次不是。

爆發軍事沖突以后，原油價格飆升至13年來的最高水平。美國每個州的汽油價格第一次超過了每加侖4美元。4月份，紐約的航空煤油價格創下新高。然而，美國的頁巖勘探商們并沒有表現出要出手相助的跡象。他們的業務模式已經發生了根本變化，在抑制增長、通過派息和回購將現金轉移給投資者的壓力下，他們的業務模式被重塑。通貨膨脹也造成了損失。預計今年美國石油產量的增幅將不到2018年的一半，當時原油價格每桶約為65美元。 這對消費者來說意味著更多痛苦，摩根大通預計，到今年8月份，美國汽油價格將達到每加侖6.20美元。

標普全球北美上游油氣業務副總裁拉烏爾·勒布朗表示：“美國石油和天然氣供應體系仍然非常強大，但在任何給定價格下，石油產量增長都將放緩。”“如果沒有頁巖股東提供的補貼，消費者可能預計將支付更高的價格。”

生產美國一半以上原油的上市獨立石油公司現在把大約三分之一的現金流返還給投資者。根據公布的統計數據，這意味著頁巖需要一個新的價格下限，從以前的每桶40美元-50美元提高到60美元-70美元，才能在美國主要石油遠景區進行廣泛的鉆探作業。把股東利益置于生產之上的壓力，是石油行業在疫情暴發前不惜一切代價增長模式的直接結果。德勤會計師事務所稱，這種增長模式在過去十年導致近3000億美元的現金消耗。預測人士表示，盡管今年頁巖產量會上升以及原油價格會上漲，但戰爭影響的石油產量額外增長將微乎其微。

根據標普全球、雷斯塔能源公司、彭博新能源財經、Enverus和美國能源信息署這五大預測機構的平均值，美國今年的原油產量將日增大約90萬桶。相比之下，2018年日增190萬桶。今年的增產計劃是在爆發軍事沖突之前制定的，分析人士預計，明年美國原油的日增產幅度僅為大約80萬桶，最終將使美國的原油產量恢復到疫情前的水平。在油田方面，運營商說預測者目前的估計甚至可能過于樂觀。與此同時，幾個歐佩克產油國正在努力完成產量配額，導致全球原油市場日益吃緊。

華爾街并不是頁巖陣痛期的唯一來源。研究和數據公司Enverus公布的統計數據顯示，全球供應鏈危機在美國二疊紀盆地尤為嚴重，二疊紀盆地將占美國今年產量增長的80%。  

二疊紀盆地鉆井公司Surge能源公司首席執行官關林華（音譯）在接受采訪時說，設備供應中斷意味著，如果一家公司想要增加產量，現在從鉆井到用泵抽油需要一年或更長的時間，而在疫情暴發前只需要三到四個月的時間。預計今年的成本膨脹率將達到16%，并說明年還會增加。因此，Surge能源公司預計今年的產量年增長率為12%，低于截至今年第一季度的前12個月的29%。 

二疊紀盆地生產商UpCurve能源公司業務副總裁Dena Demboski說，有助于穩定井襯里的套管的成本比平時高出三倍，而完成訂單交貨期要更長時間。二疊紀盆地大型鉆井公司先鋒自然資源公司預計，明年新鉆機合同的成本差不多將上漲40%。

活躍在二疊紀米德蘭盆地的生產商火鳥能源公司首席執行官特拉維斯·湯普森表示：“無論是管子還是沙子，我們都很難獲得所需的一些關鍵產品。”“如果我們想要增加鉆井活動，比如從3部鉆機增加到4部或5部鉆機，我們肯定需要制定比過去1、2年更長遠的鉆井計劃。”

從2012年到2019年，美國的石油產量平均日增705萬桶。歐佩克多次試圖通過放任油價下跌來排擠頁巖生產商，但都以失敗告終。然而，美國的頁巖現在幾乎沒有希望取代估計每天200萬至300萬桶的產量，這些產量要么由于制裁而被關閉，要么被認為是不可交易的。

Enverus高級副總裁阿爾·薩拉薩爾表示：“大國的生產供應缺口太大，美國頁巖無法單獨填補。”今年，油田的“限產和生產商紀律限制頁巖冷卻油價的能力”。  

石油和汽油價格的飆升推動美國通脹率升至幾十年來的最高水平，越來越明顯的是，頁巖不再是遏制油價飆升的靈丹妙藥。美國似乎已放棄鼓勵美國石油公司提高產量的公眾呼吁，這是政府今年早些時候關注的一個重點。據知情人士透露，拜登目前正在考慮與沙特王儲會面。  

先鋒自然資源公司首席執行官斯科特·謝菲爾德日前在得克薩斯州哈特能源公司舉辦的DUG二疊紀會議上表示：“二疊紀盆地將提供幫助。” 但是“二疊紀盆地能拯救世界嗎”?

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

World's Oil Growth Engine Is about to Slow

In a world crying out for more oil, a dusty stretch of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico is one of the only places that can deliver. But even with crude above $100 a barrel, producers in the Permian and other US shale basins are riding the brakes. 

For most of the past decade, the Permian was an unstoppable drilling machine. Its vast, low-cost reserves helped transform the US into the world’s swing oil supplier, primed to turbocharge output as soon as prices soared or to halt when they collapsed. Because shale producers amassed a backlog of wells that could be tapped in just a few weeks, a crude rally was sure to incite a fracking frenzy that would help replenish global stockpiles and cool off prices.

But not this time.

After the war in late February, crude prices surged to a 13-year high. Gasoline is above $4 a gallon in every US state for the first time.

Jet fuel in New York spiked to a record last month. Yet shale explorers show no sign of riding to the rescue. Their business model has fundamentally changed, reshaped by pressure to curb growth and divert cash to investors with dividends and buybacks. Inflation is also taking a toll. US oil output this year is expected to expand by less than half the amount it did in 2018, when crude traded around $65. That means more pain for consumers, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicting US gasoline at $6.20 a gallon by August.

“The US oil and gas supply system remains very potent, but at any given price, growth will be smaller and slower,” said Raoul LeBlanc, vice president for North American upstream oil and gas at S&P Global. “Without the subsidy that shale shareholders provided, consumers can expect to pay higher prices.”

Publicly traded independent oil companies, which produce more than half of U.S. crude, are now giving about a third of their cash flow back to investors. This means shale needs a new pricing floor of about $60 to $70 a barrel, up from $40 to $50 a barrel previously, to enable drilling broadly across the major U.S. oil plays, according to S&P Global. The pressure to prioritize shareholders over production is a direct result of the industry’s pre-pandemic, grow-at-any-cost model that,  according to Deloitte LLP, led to nearly $300 billion of cash burn over the previous decade. Though shale output will rise this year, forecasters says there's minimal additional growth coming as a result of the war, despite the rally in crude prices. 

The US will add about 900,000 barrels a day of oil production this year, according to the average of five major forecasters: S&P Global, Rystad Energy, BloombergNEF, Enverus and the US Energy Information Administration. That compares with 1.9 million a day in 2018. This year’s growth was planned before the war, and analysts only see a modest increase of about 800,000 barrels a day next year, which would finally bring US output to pre-pandemic levels. In the field, operators say forecasters’ current estimates may even be too optimistic. Several OPEC producers, meanwhile, are struggling to fill their output quotas, leaving the global crude market increasingly tight.

Wall Street isn’t the only source of shale’s growing pains. The global supply-chain crisis is particularly acute in the Permian Basin, which will make up 80% of this year’s US production growth, according to research and data firm Enverus.

Disruptions to equipment supplies mean if a company wants to increase production, it would now take a year or more between drilling to pumping oil, up from three to four months before the pandemic, Linhua Guan, CEO of Permian driller Surge Energy, said in an interview. Guan planned for 16% cost inflation this year and says that will increase next year. As a result, Surge expects a 12% annual production growth rate this  year, down from 29% in the 12 months through the first quarter. Even so, Guan expected the U.S. 

The cost of casing, a lining that helps to stabilize wells, is three times higher than usual and lead times to fill orders are much longer, said Dena Demboski, vice president of operations at Permian producer UpCurve Energy LLC. “Rig rates are higher than I've ever seen them” at more than $30,000 a day, she said. Pioneer Natural Resources Co., a major Permian driller, expects the cost of contracts for new rigs to rise as much as 40% next year. 

“It's just more difficult to get some of the key products that we need, whether that's pipe or sand,” said Travis Thompson, CEO of FireBird Energy LLC, a producer active in the Permian’s Midland Basin. “If we wanted to increase activity, say from three rigs to four or five, we would certainly have to plan on that a lot further out than what you would have had to a year or two back.”

America’s oil production increased by 7.05 million barrels a day from 2012 to 2019, adding new output equivalent to Iran and Iraq combined in just eight years. OPEC failed in its multiple attempts to sideline shale producers by allowing prices to crater. And yet U.S. shale now has little hope of replacing the estimated 2 million to 3 million barrels a day from the largest oil producer that are either shut-in or deemed untradeable because of sanctions. 

“The the largest oil producer's production supply gap is too big for shale to fill in alone,” said Al Salazar, senior vice president of Enverus. Oil field “constraints and producer discipline limit shale’s ability to cool prices” this year.

The jump in oil and gasoline prices has helped drive US inflation to the highest levels in decades, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that shale is no longer the silver bullet to counter skyrocketing crude prices. President appears to have abandoned public calls to encourage US drillers to boost production, a key focus for his administration earlier in this year. He’s now considering a meeting with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to people familiar with the matter. 

“The Permian is going to be there to help,” Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said at Hart Energy's DUG Permian conference in Texas last week. But “is that going to save the world? Not with what happened” in Ukraine, he said.