據(jù)彭博新聞社2023年6月26日報道，全球最大的化石燃料公司正在發(fā)出明確的信息：向綠色未來的轉(zhuǎn)型將需要更多的天然氣。

從殼牌公司到雪佛龍公司，全球最大的化石燃料生產(chǎn)商都計劃加快對這種燃料的投資。亞洲大國不斷簽署協(xié)議，購買2050年后的液化天然氣，歐洲天然氣進口國也緊隨其后。美國正在推進新項目，在可預(yù)見的未來，這些項目將使美國成為全球最大的液化天然氣出口國。

這種勢頭標志著天然氣市場的一個轉(zhuǎn)折點。這種“最清潔”的化石燃料曾被視為通往更環(huán)保能源的短期橋梁，但環(huán)保人士一直在尋求逐步淘汰這種燃料，因為他們擔心天然氣比宣傳的要臟得多。現(xiàn)在，認為天然氣需求將很快見頂?shù)南敕ㄕ谙А?/p>

華盛頓智庫戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心高級研究員本·卡希爾表示：“液化天然氣賣家環(huán)顧這個市場，對未來幾十年的天然氣需求將非常有信心。”

突發(fā)的地緣政治沖突以及隨后的能源危機和歷史最高水平的價格飆升，改變了天然氣的長期前景。歐洲正急于獲取替代燃料，而新興發(fā)展國家正在簽署長期協(xié)議，以避免未來出現(xiàn)天然氣供應(yīng)短缺。

亞洲大國6月27日與卡塔爾簽署了一項為期27年的協(xié)議，以保障其能源安全。一家德國進口商6月22日簽署了一份具有里程碑意義的合同，將從美國購買液化天然氣，直至2046年——盡管德國的目標是在此之前一年實現(xiàn)碳中和。

IEA公布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自突發(fā)地緣政治沖突以來，全球已批準了大約600億立方米的天然氣新產(chǎn)能，幾乎是過去10年的兩倍。

瑞士信貸集團駐悉尼的能源分析師索爾·卡沃尼克說，“對股東們來說，加大對天然氣的投資也是有意義的。在過去幾年里，這種燃料一直是有利可圖的，而追求綠色能源的目標則更加艱難”。

過去幾年，天然氣一直是殼牌公司和英國石油公司等能源巨頭的主要盈利驅(qū)動力。幾年前，生產(chǎn)商投入了利潤率較低的可再生能源業(yè)務(wù)，但由于回報平平，他們現(xiàn)在正在重新考慮這些投資。

殼牌公司首席執(zhí)行官6月份對投資者表示：“液化天然氣將在未來的能源結(jié)構(gòu)中發(fā)揮比現(xiàn)在更大的作用。”他在今年1月份擔任殼牌公司首席執(zhí)行官后概述了公司的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)變，“液化天然氣可以很容易地運輸?shù)阶钚枰牡胤健８匾氖牵骄裕烊粴獍l(fā)電時的碳排放量比煤炭要少50%左右。”

殼牌公司計劃今年將天然氣投資增加大約25%，達到歷史最高水平的50億美元，并在2025年前保持這一投資水平。去年這家總部位于倫敦的英國能源巨頭加入了埃克森美孚公司和康菲公司的行列，投資卡塔爾300億美元的液化天然氣擴建項目，這是該行業(yè)有史以來規(guī)模最大的項目。

天然氣也是意大利能源巨頭埃尼公司增長計劃的關(guān)鍵，這是埃尼公司6月23日以49億美元收購海王星能源集團有限公司的一大動力。在其他地方，羅馬尼亞兩家最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)商本周同意在黑海天然氣項目上投資40億歐元（44億美元），此前雙方爭論了幾十年。雪佛龍公司和埃克森美孚公司正在增加員工，以擴大在倫敦和新加坡的天然氣交易活動。

在美國，由于德國和日本等國的買家與出口商簽訂長期合同，新的液化天然氣工廠的開發(fā)正在得到支撐。德國和日本都有雄心勃勃的綠色目標。6月，法國道達爾能源公司推動了在美國建設(shè)一個液化天然氣出口終端的計劃，并同意購買該項目及其開發(fā)商的股份。這家法國能源巨頭還在與沙特阿拉伯討論投資大型天然氣項目。

盡管如此，需要多少天然氣和投資仍存在爭議，需求可能取決于各國在減排方面的成功程度。

IEA表示，到本十年結(jié)束前，天然氣需求需要大幅下降，才能使世界走上2050年實現(xiàn)凈零排放的軌道。IEA在2021年計算出，為了實現(xiàn)這一目標，需要停止所有石油、天然氣和煤炭的新開發(fā)項目。

聯(lián)合國秘書長6月在紐約對記者表示，生產(chǎn)商和金融機構(gòu)需要“承諾停止為勘探新油氣田和擴大油氣儲量提供融資和投資”。

反對使用天然氣的最大理由之一是甲烷的排放，甲烷是天然氣生產(chǎn)的副產(chǎn)品，在大氣中首個20年間的熱量是二氧化碳的80多倍。美國國家科學院發(fā)表的一項研究顯示，超過3%的氣體泄漏使這種燃料對氣候的影響比煤炭更嚴重，這削弱了行業(yè)聲稱它是一種更清潔的化石燃料的論斷。

為了將天然氣作為煤炭的清潔替代品推向市場，能源巨頭們正在努力減少甲烷的排放。作為去年啟動的一項計劃的一部分，殼牌公司、埃克森美孚公司和其他十幾家生產(chǎn)商的目標是到2030年前實現(xiàn)甲烷“近零”排放。

哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心全球研究員艾拉·約瑟夫表示：“通過最終認真對待減少甲烷排放，石油巨頭們相信，他們可以為氣候變化形成積極正向影響，并保持他們資產(chǎn)的商業(yè)相關(guān)性。”

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Transition Needs Natural Gas: Fossil Fuel Majors

The biggest fossil fuel players are making the message clear: the transition to a green future will require much more natural gas.

From Shell Plc to Chevron Corp., the world’s top producers plan to accelerate investments in the fuel. The biggest country in Asia is signing deals to buy liquefied natural gas past 2050, with European importers not far behind. The US is forging ahead with new projects that will make it the world’s top LNG exporter for the foreseeable future.

This momentum marks a turning point for gas. The “cleanest” fossil fuel was seen as a short-term bridge to greener energy sources, and environmentalists have sought to phase it out amid worries that gas is far dirtier than advertised. Now, the idea that gas demand will peak anytime soon is disappearing.

“LNG sellers look around this market and feel pretty confident that gas demand will be with us for decades to come,” said Ben Cahill, senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

The war and the subsequent energy crisis and record-breaking price surge, has changed the long-term prospects for natural gas. Europe is rushing to replace fuel from pipe while emerging nations are signing long-term deals to avoid future shortages. 

The biggest country in Asia signed a 27-year agreement with Qatar on Tuesday to safeguard its energy security, and a German importer on Thursday inked a landmark contract to buy LNG from the US through 2046 — even though Germany aims to be carbon neutral a year before that.

about 60 billion cubic meters of new gas production capacity has been approved since the war, nearly double the rate compared with the past decade, according to the International Energy Agency.

Doubling down on gas also makes sense for shareholders, said Saul Kavonic, a Sydney-based energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG. The fuel has been profitable over the last few years while the pursuit of green energy targets has been more of a struggle, he said.

Gas has been the main earnings driver for energy companies including Shell and BP Plc over the past few years. Producers had plunged into the lower-margin renewable power business years before, but are now rethinking those investments due to lackluster returns.

“Liquefied natural gas will play an even bigger role in the energy system of the future than it plays today,” Shell’s Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan told investors this month as he outlined a strategy shift following his promotion to the role in January. “LNG can be easily transported to places where it is needed most. And what’s more, on average, natural gas emits about 50% less carbon emissions than coal when used to produce electricity.”

Shell plans to increase natural gas investments by about 25% this year to a record $5 billion and keep spending at that level through 2025. Last year, the London-based company joined Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips to invest in Qatar’s $30 billion LNG expansion, the biggest ever in the industry.

Gas is also key to Italian energy group Eni SpA’s growth plans — that was a big motivation behind Friday’s $4.9 billion deal to buy Neptune Energy Group Ltd. Elsewhere, Romania’s two biggest natural gas producers agreed this week to invest as much as $4 billion ($4.4 billion) in a Black Sea gas project after decades of debate. Chevron and Exxon are adding more staff to build up their gas trading activities in London and Singapore.

In the US, the development of new LNG plants is being underpinned as buyers in countries including Germany and Japan — both of which have ambitious green goals — sign long-term contracts with exporters. TotalEnergies SE gave a boost this month to plans to build a US export terminal, agreeing to buy stakes in the project and its developer. The French company is also in discussions with Saudi Arabia to invest in its massive natural gas project. 

Still, there is a debate over how much gas and investment will be needed, with demand likely to hinge on how successful nations are in reducing emissions.

The IEA says gas demand needs to fall dramatically by the end of the decade in order to keep the world on track for net zero by 2050. The agency in 2021 calculated that all new developments of oil, gas and coal fields need to be stopped to meet that scenario.

Producers and financial institutions need to “commit to end financing and investment in exploration for new oil and gas fields, and expansion of oil and gas reserves,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters this month in New York. “We are hurtling towards disaster, eyes wide open.”

One of the biggest arguments against natural gas is methane emissions, a byproduct of gas production that traps more than 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide in its first two decades in the atmosphere. Gas leakage of more than about 3% makes the fuel worse for the climate than coal, according to a study published by the National Academy of Sciences, undermining industry claims that it is a cleaner fossil fuel.

In order to market natural gas as a clean alternative to coal, energy majors are working to cut methane releases. Shell, Exxon Mobil and more than a dozen other producers aim to achieve “near-zero” methane emissions by 2030 as part of an initiative launched last year.

“By finally taking the reduction of methane emissions seriously, the majors believe they can thread the needle of making a positive contribution to climate change and keeping their assets commercially relevant,” said Ira Joseph, a global fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.