據(jù)油價網(wǎng)8月8日報道，根據(jù)機構周二發(fā)布的《短期能源展望》，EIA上調了今年和明年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格的預測。

根據(jù)該報告，EIA預計今年布倫特原油價格平均每桶82.62美元，較之前上調了約4美元。明年，該機構預測布倫特原油平均每桶價格將達到86.48美元，較之前上調了約2美元，漲幅為3.6%。

對于8月份，EIA預計布倫特原油平均每桶價格為85美元。

EIA在最新預測中表示：“由于沙特阿拉伯延長了自愿減產(chǎn)的原因以及全球需求增加，原油價格自6月份以來有所上漲。我們預計這些因素將繼續(xù)減少全球石油庫存，并在未來幾個月對油價產(chǎn)生上行壓力，預計2023年下半年布倫特原油價格平均為每桶86美元，較我們7月份的短期能源展望預測上調約7美元。”

EIA預計明年全球石油產(chǎn)量的增加將能夠滿足石油需求，從而在2024年第二季度對油價施加一定下行壓力。

EIA預計今年美國原油產(chǎn)量平均為每日1280萬桶，明年將達到1310萬桶，這將超過以往的年度最高水平，原因是預計井口生產(chǎn)率提高以及原油價格上漲。2022年，美國原油產(chǎn)量為日均1191萬桶。

預計今年全球石油產(chǎn)量將增加每日140萬桶，其中非歐佩克產(chǎn)量預計將增加每日210萬桶。明年，EIA預測全球原油產(chǎn)量將每日增加170萬桶。

根據(jù)EIA的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年布倫特原油價格平均為每桶100.94美元，而2021年為每桶70.89美元。

胡耀東 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA Raises Brent Spot Price Forecast

The Energy Information Administration raised its outlook for Brent crude oil spot prices for this year and next, according to the agency’s Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday.

The EIA sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $82.62 per barrel this year—an upward revision of some $4 per barrel, the STEO showed. For next year, the EIA predicts Brent will average $86.48 per barrel, an upward revision of some $2 per barrel, or 3.6%.

For August, the EIA sees Brent crude averaging $85 per barrel.

“Crude oil prices have increased since June, primarily because of extended voluntary cuts to Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and increasing global demand. We expect these factors will continue to reduce global oil inventories and put upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, with the Brent price averaging $86/b in the second half of 2023 (2H23), up about $7/b from our July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast for the same period,” the EIA said in its latest forecast.

Rising global oil production anticipated next year is expected to keep up with oil demand, keeping some downward pressure on prices in Q2 2024.

The EIA sees crude oil production in the United States averaging 12.8 million barrels per day this year, and 13.1 million bpd next year, beating annual records on the back of expectations for higher well-level productivity and higher crude prices. U.S. crude oil production in 2922 averaged 11.91 million bpd.

Global oil production is expected to increase by 1.4 million bpd this year, with non-OPEC production expected to increase by 2.1 million bpd. Next year, the EIA is forecasting a 1.7 million bpd rise in global crude oil production.

Brent crude prices averaged $100.94 last year, and $70.89 in 2021, EIA data shows.