據MRCHUB網站8月23日報道，根據烴加工網稱，亞洲煉油廠正在尋找原油來取代科威特的供應，因為這個歐佩克產油國削減了近五分之一的出口，以供應其龐大的新煉油廠，這推高了其他含硫原油的價格，并可能擠壓利潤率。

科威特出口下降之前，歐佩克主要成員國沙特阿拉伯減產，將布倫特原油價格推至每桶近90美元，亞洲煉油商幾乎沒有回旋的空間，這些煉油廠三分之二以上的原油進口依賴中東。

但科威特的大多數客戶將不得不從沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和阿拉伯聯合酋長國等其他供應商那里購買類似質量的石油，或者從其他地區購買更昂貴的低硫石油。咨詢公司睿咨得能源（Rystad Energy）的分析師Janiv Shah表示，沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋是填補中東供應缺口的最大競爭者，因為它們生產和出口的是中等含硫原油。

Energy Aspects分析師孫佳楠表示，他們不太可能完全滿足需求。歐佩克生產商及其盟友的持續減產以及旨在加工含硫原油的新煉油能力可能導致供應緊張，直至2024年底。

根據Kpler的數據顯示，隨著Al Zour煉油廠的擴建，科威特1至7月的原油出貨量比2022年同期減少了約10%，至161萬桶/日。根據數據顯示，同期對印度等國的出口下降了17%以上，而對巴基斯坦、菲律賓和泰國的出口量降至零。

據咨詢公司FGE、Energy Aspects、Rystad Energy和S&P Global Commodity Insights稱，今年下半年，科威特的出口量將減少30萬桶/天，比上半年減少18%，因為其將供應轉移到日產能為61.5萬桶的Al Zour工廠，該工廠在7月份啟動了第三個也是最后一個原油蒸餾裝置(CDU)。

此外，各咨詢公司表示，科威特在阿曼的日產能為23萬桶的合資企業Duqm煉油廠計劃于2023年底開始運營，這可能會使科威特原油出口量在2024年進一步減少10萬至20萬桶/天。

據一位知情人士稱，科威特石油公司(KPC)已通知買家，每個月供應量都可能波動，一旦Al Zour全面投產，供應量可能進一步減少。KPC沒有回應路透的置評請求。

郝芬 譯自 MRCHUB網站

原文如下：

Asia's refiners face profit crunch as Kuwait cuts crude exports

Asian refiners are on the hunt for crude oil to replace Kuwaiti supply as the OPEC producer cuts exports by nearly a fifth to feed its huge new refinery, which is driving up prices for other sour crudes and likely to squeeze profit margins, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Lower Kuwaiti exports follow cuts from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia that have pushed Brent prices close to USD90 a barrel and left little wriggle room for Asia's refiners, reliant on the Middle East for more than two-thirds of crude imports.

But most of Kuwait's customers will have to pay up for similar quality oil from other suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates or buy more expensive sweet grades from other regions. "Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the top contenders for filling the supply gap in the Middle East due to their production and export of medium sour barrels," said Janiv Shah, an analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy.

"It is improbable that they will be able to entirely meet the demand." Sustained output cuts from OPEC producers and their allies and new refining capacity designed to process sour crude could lead to tight supply until the end of 2024, Energy Aspects analyst Sun Jianan said.

Kuwait's crude shipments shrank by about 10% to 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd) in January-July from the same period in 2022 as its Al Zour refinery ramped up, according to Kpler data. Exports to  India... dropped more than 17% during the same period, while volumes for Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand fell to zero, the data showed.

In the second half, Kuwait will reduce its exports by up to 300,000 bpd, down 18% from the first half, as it diverts supply to the 615,000 bpd Al Zour plant, which cranked up its third and final crude distillation unit (CDU) in July, according to consultancies FGE, Energy Aspects, Rystad Energy and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Additionally, Kuwait's joint venture 230,000 bpd Duqm refinery in Oman is scheduled to start operation by end-2023, which could reduce Kuwaiti crude exports by a further 100,000 bpd to 200,000 bpd in 2024, the consultancies said.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) has notified buyers that volumes could fluctuate each month and could be further reduced once Al Zour is at full operation, a source familiar with the matter said. KPC did not respond to Reuters' inquiry seeking comment.