據鉆機地帶8月10日報道，能源和環境地理分析公司Kayrros在本周發給鉆機地帶的一份新報告中指出，全球陸上原油庫存在地緣政治沖突激化后，自5月中旬以來一直在小幅下降。

根據Kayrros的數據顯示，截至8月6日，陸上原油庫存減少至約29.7億桶，較5月中旬的峰值減少了3500萬桶，即每日73萬桶。

根據報告中可以追溯到2021年1月數據的一張圖表顯示，今年1月全球陸上原油庫存遠低于29億桶，然后在5月升至2022年峰值。該圖表顯示，去年的峰值出現在5月之前，約為32億桶。

Kayrros在報告中指出，截至8月6日，全球陸上原油庫存從5月中旬的峰值小幅下降至約29.77億桶。并補充道，在這種情況下，OPEC+上周同意在9月份將日產量提高10萬桶，這是自1986年以來配額增幅最小的一次。在經濟放緩和石油需求低迷的跡象下，美國致密油產量的增長可能有助于彌補這一差距，使市場大致保持平衡。

據美國能源信息署（EIA） 8月的短期能源展望（STEO）預計，美國原油日產量將從第二季度的1169萬桶上升至第三季度的1201萬桶，第四季度為1228萬桶。根據STEO的數據顯示，預計今年美國原油日產量將達到1186萬桶，2023年將達到1270萬桶，并強調2021年美國原油日產量為1125萬桶。

最近的歐佩克+會議提出了幾項警告，包括指出“過剩產能的可用性嚴重受限”。該集團目前計劃于9月5日舉行下一次會議。

今年2月，地緣政治沖突升級，油價多年來首次突破每桶100美元。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下:

Global onshore Crude Stocks Edge Down

Global crude oil onshore inventories have been edging slightly lower since mid-May after surging in the aftermath of the war, energy and environmental geo-analytics company Kayrros noted in a new report sent to Rigzone this week.

onshore crude stocks decreased to about 2.97 billion barrels as of August 6, according to Kayrros, which highlighted that that the figure marked a drop of 35 million barrels, or 730,000 barrels per day, from a mid-May peak.

According to a chart included in the report, which contained data stretching back to January 2021, global onshore crude oil inventories were well under 2.9 billion barrels back in January this year before rising to their, current, 2022 peak in May. Last year’s peak was seen before May at around 3.2 billion barrels, the chart showed. 

“Global onshore crude stocks edged down from their mid-May peak to about 2,977 million barrels as of August 6,” Kayrros stated in the report.

“Against this backdrop, OPEC+ last week agreed to boost its output by 100,000 barrels per day in September, the smallest increase in quota since 1986,” Kayrros added in the report.

“Growing U.S. tight oil production may help bridge the difference and keep markets roughly in balance amid signs of economic slowdown and sluggish oil demand,” Kayrros went on to note.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) August short term energy outlook (STEO) projects that U.S. crude oil production will rise from 11.69 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 12.01 million barrels per day in Q3 and 12.28 million barrels per day in Q4. U.S. crude oil production is forecasted to hit 11.86 million barrels per day this year and 12.70 million barrels per day in 2023, according to the STEO, which highlights that 2021 U.S. crude oil production came in at 11.25 million barrels per day.

The latest OPEC+ meeting offered several warnings, including the identification of a “severely limited availability of excess capacity”. The group is currently scheduled to hold its next meeting on September 5.

Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years back in February as the war.