先鋒自然資源公司認為：受限制的產量增長將在中期提振原油價格

成本上升限制了產量增長，侵蝕了利潤率

一些頁巖行業高管認為，二疊紀盆地石油產量到達峰值只有五六年時間了

據油價網2023年6月11日報道，美國最大單一投資頁巖生產商先鋒自然資源公司的一位高管日前表示，由于供應增長仍然有限，歐佩克+繼續限制產量，油價將在今年晚些時候上漲，在未來3到5年內在每桶70至100美元的范圍內交易。

在休斯敦，先鋒自然資源公司執行副總裁貝斯·麥克唐納在能源市場分析機構RBN能源公司召開的原油出口會議上對路透社表示，勞動力和材料成本上升正在減緩美國頁巖產量的增長。此外，頁巖投資者希望獲得更多回報，并限制支出。

盡管在過去一年半的時間里，油價在很長一段時間內都沒有跌破每桶70美元，但成本上升限制了產量增長，侵蝕了利潤率。

麥克唐納對路透社表示，盡管歐佩克努力推高油價，但利潤的擠壓確實阻礙了美國勘探和生產公司的重大發展。

“總體而言，你仍將看到溫和的(生產)增長率和較低的再投資率，因為我們繼續專注于向股東返還現金。”先鋒自然資源公司的這名高管補充道。

近幾個月來，對向股東返還現金的關注，加上成本上漲和政府發出的喜憂參半的信息，拖累了美國石油產量的增長。

EIA本周上調了對美國原油產量增長的預期，預計今年美國原油日產量將增加72萬桶，高于此前預測的64萬桶。

然而，頁巖業的高管們卻不那么樂觀，一些人認為，隨著鉆井公司耗盡黃金探區面積，二疊紀盆地的石油產量將在五六年后達到峰值。

美國石油高管們已經在3月初表示，由于美國頁巖產量增長放緩，歐佩克將再次成為全球石油供應中最具影響力的力量，而且在可預見的未來仍將如此。

先鋒自然資源公司首席執行官斯科特·謝菲爾德今年早些時候曾對英國《金融時報》表示：“我認為目前全球負責石油產量增加的是三個國家——他們將在未來25年負責。”

“沙特第一，阿聯酋第二，科威特第三。”

與此同時，謝菲爾德表示，二疊紀盆地的石油產量峰值距離我們只有五六年的時間，預計到那時，這個最大頁巖生產盆地的主要鉆井探區面積將會耗盡。

響尾蛇能源公司執行副總裁兼首席運營官丹尼·韋森5月份在哈特能源公司召開的Super DUG活動上表示，二疊紀盆地的產量可能在2030年左右達到峰值。

他表示：“本十年結束前……前后幾年，你可能會看到二疊紀盆地石油產量的峰值，并開始趨于穩產。”

“我們花的時間越長，它就會越長時間達到穩產狀態。但我們越快到達穩產，它就會下降得越快。”響尾蛇能源公司這名高級主管補充道。

韋森說：“我認為，十年后是考慮(產量持平或下降)的好時機，但不能把二疊紀盆地排除在外。”

最新的達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行第一季度能源調查結果顯示，3月底，由于成本飆升和前景惡化，得克薩斯州、新墨西哥州和路易斯安那州(包括二疊紀盆地在內的最大頁巖油氣藏所在地)的油氣增產陷入停滯。

在對調查的評論中，一位美國勘探與生產公司的高管指出：“EIA本周發布了年度能源展望報告，預測未來30年美國的石油產量將持平。我們可能應該告訴他們，我們將在5年內看到頁巖產量的大幅下降。”

另一位高管說，“當前政府的政策將繼續對國內天然氣和石油生產產生負面影響。未來幾年，石油和天然氣價格將飆升，我們將任由那些討厭我們的國家擺布”。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Pioneer Sees $70-$100 Oil As Supply Growth Remains Constrained

·     Pioneer: Constrained production growth will lift crude prices in the medium-term.

·     Higher costs are constraining production growth and eating into margins.

·     Some shale executives believe peak Permian oil production is only five or six years away.

Oil prices are set to rise later this year and trade in the $70-$100 range over the next three to five years as supply growth remains limited and OPEC+ continues to restrict output, according to a top executive at the largest pure-play U.S. shale producer, Pioneer Natural Resources. 

Higher labor and material costs are slowing U.S. shale production growth, Pioneers's Executive Vice President Beth McDonald told Reuters at RBN Energy's crude export conference in Houston this week. In addition, shale investors want more returns and a limit on spending, McDonald added. 

Higher costs are constraining production growth and eating into margins despite the fact that oil prices haven't moved lower than $70 per barrel for an extended period of time over the past year and a half.  

"That squeeze in the margin is really keeping U.S. E&Ps (exploration and production companies) from moving forward in a significant way" despite OPEC's efforts to push up prices, McDonald told Reuters.

"In general, you'll still see those modest (production) growth rates and those low reinvestment rates because we continue to focus on returning cash to shareholders," the executive added. 

The focus on returning cash to shareholders has combined with cost inflation and mixed messages from the Administration to drag down U.S. oil production growth in recent months. 

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) upgraded this week its outlook on U.S. crude oil production growth, expecting gains of 720,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from a previously forecast growth rate of 640,000 bpd.  

Shale executives, however, are not so optimistic, and some believe peak Permian oil production is five or six years away as drillers exhaust the prime acreage. 

American oil executives already said in early March that OPEC is once again the most influential force in global oil supply – and will be so for the foreseeable future – now that U.S. shale production growth is slowing. 

Pioneer's chief executive Scott Sheffield told the Financial Times earlier this year, "I think the people that are in charge now are three countries — and they'll be in charge the next 25 years."

"Saudi first, UAE second, Kuwait third."

Meanwhile, peak Permian oil production is just five or six years away, according to Sheffield, who attributed this forecast from March to expectations that drillers will have exhausted by then the prime drilling acreage in the top shale-producing basin.  

Permian production could peak around 2030, Danny Wesson, Diamondback Energy's executive vice president and chief operating officer, said at Hart Energy's Super DUG event last month. 

"[By] the end of the decade… plus or minus a couple of years, you might see the Permian peak and start plateauing," Wesson said. 

"The longer it takes us to get there, the longer it will plateau and run flat. But the faster we get there, it will decline faster," Diamondback's senor executive added. 

"I think end of decade is a good time to think about [flat or declining production], but you can't count the Permian out."

The most recent Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q1 showed at the end of March that oil and gas expansion in Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana – home to the biggest shale plays, including the Permian – stalled amid surging costs and worsening outlooks. 

In comments to the survey, one U.S. executive at an E&P firm noted, "The Energy Information Administration put out its Annual Energy Outlook this week, and it forecasts that oil production from the U.S. will be flat for the next 30 years. We should probably inform them of the collapse in shale production we are going to see in under five years."

Another executive said, 

"The administration's policies will continue to affect domestic natural gas and oil production negatively. Oil and gas prices will soar in the next few years, and we'll be at the mercy of nations that hate us."