據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，沙特可能會(huì)考慮從7月開(kāi)始大幅削減對(duì)美國(guó)的原油出口，以影響世界上關(guān)鍵石油市場(chǎng)的緊縮。

彭博新聞社“觀點(diǎn)”專(zhuān)欄作家Javier Blas認(rèn)為，由于沙特準(zhǔn)備在7月份單方面將原油日產(chǎn)量再削減100萬(wàn)桶，沙特對(duì)西方的原油出口可能比對(duì)其主要市場(chǎng)亞洲的出口受到更大影響。

近幾年來(lái)，沙特阿拉伯多次大幅減少對(duì)美國(guó)的原油出口，試圖收緊美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，美國(guó)每周都會(huì)報(bào)告原油和石油產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)。

6月初，歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)決定將目前的減產(chǎn)維持到2024年底，但歐佩克最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)沙特表示，將在7月份自愿將原油日產(chǎn)量再減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶至約900萬(wàn)桶。沙特能源大臣薩勒曼表示，減產(chǎn)可能會(huì)延長(zhǎng)至7月以后。

7月份原油產(chǎn)量水平將是沙特自2011年以來(lái)最低水平，不包括2020年疫情暴發(fā)后初步減產(chǎn)，以及2019年9月沙特阿美設(shè)施遭遇襲擊后的減產(chǎn)。

據(jù)報(bào)道，即使在沙特阿拉伯宣布將在今年7月減產(chǎn)之后，全球最大的原油出口商沙特阿拉伯國(guó)家石油公司（沙特阿美）仍向至少五家亞洲北部煉油廠(chǎng)保證，他們7月份將獲得合同規(guī)定的全部原油數(shù)量。

沙特阿美可能會(huì)優(yōu)先向其看重的亞洲市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)原油，從而減少對(duì)美國(guó)的出口，從而迫使市場(chǎng)收緊供應(yīng)，這一點(diǎn)在庫(kù)存報(bào)告中可以明顯看出。此外，彭博社的Blas指出，沙特阿美還控制著美國(guó)產(chǎn)能最大的莫蒂瓦煉油廠(chǎng)，并可能影響具有日加工63萬(wàn)桶原油能力亞瑟港煉油廠(chǎng)的供應(yīng)。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia Could Slash Oil Supply To The U.S.

Saudi Arabia could be looking to slash crude oil shipments to the United States from next month to effect a tightening of the world’s most key oil market.

As the Kingdom prepares to cut unilaterally 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from its crude oil production in July, its crude shipments to the west could be much more affected than exports to its primary market, Asia, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas argues.

On several occasions in recent years, Saudi Arabia has significantly lowered crude shipments to the United States in attempts to tighten the U.S. market, which reports oil and products data on a weekly basis.

Early this month, the OPEC+ producers decided to keep the current cuts until the end of 2024, but OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, said it would voluntarily reduce its production by 1 million bpd in July, to around 9 million bpd. The cut could be extended beyond July, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said.  

The production level in July would be Saudi Arabia’s lowest since 2011, excluding the initial cuts after the Covid outbreak in 2020 and the lowered production after the attack on Aramco’s facilities in September 2019.

Even after the production cut Saudi Arabia announced for July 2023, Aramco, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, reportedly assured at least five North Asian refiners they would get the full crude volumes they had asked for in July.

Prioritizing supply to its prized Asian markets, Aramco could lower shipments to the U.S., to force a tightening of the market that would be evident in inventory reports. Moreover, Aramco controls the largest refinery by capacity in the U.S., Motiva, and could influence supply to the 630,000-bpd facility in Port Arthur, too, Bloomberg’s Blas notes.