美國主要頁巖油生產商希望在今年提高產量，但大幅增產似乎不太可能

無論美國今年的頁巖油產量有多高，都不太可能高到足以對國際原油價格構成重大壓力

井產能的提高可能不足以抵消美國頁巖地區鉆井速度的下降

據油價網2023年8月10日報道，在最新的財報季中，美國幾家頁巖油巨頭調整了他們今年的產量預期。令人驚訝的是，他們都向上修正了這些預測。

彭博社在最近發表的一份報告中表示，這一向上修正歸因于更高的油井產量，這讓人感到意外。由于這一意外，今年美國石油產量的增長將強于此前預期。

如果我們相信路透社調查的分析師對美國頁巖行業的看法，根據這些分析師所說，要想大幅提高美國頁巖油的產量，僅靠井產能趨勢的突然逆轉是不夠的。

鉆井產能的“驚人”增長可能出乎媒體意料，但對于行業來說，這并非完全在意料之外。原因是：那些報告生產率提高的公司表示，他們一直在努力提高他們的鉆井效率，而他們已經看到了結果。

美國著名大型獨立油氣勘探和生產公司先鋒自然資源公司的首席執行官斯科特·謝菲爾德去年曾警告稱，美國的頁巖繁榮已經結束，原因之一是鉆井產能下降。

雪佛龍公司公布了第二季度歷史新高的產量，因為它專注于二疊紀盆地的得克薩斯州區域，而不是新墨西哥區域。雪佛龍公司預計，今年二疊紀盆地的產量將增加10%。

然而，路透社調查的分析師認為，以目前的鉆探速度來看，這不足以顯著提高美國的石油總產量，目前的鉆探速度仍然低迷。

7月份，美國油田服務供應商敲響了警鐘。他們表示，頁巖地區對這些服務的需求正在下降，美國三大油服巨頭斯倫貝謝公司、哈里伯頓公司和貝克休斯公司都報告了他們北美業務的下降。

美國主要水力壓裂公司Liberty Energy的首席執行官克里斯·賴特告訴英國《金融時報》記者：“在第二季度，我們看到水力壓裂活動減少，導致我們工作日歷上的空白增加。”賴特還表示，如果需求保持在同一水平，該公司可能需要減少其水力壓裂隊伍的數量。

因此，一方面，勘探和生產公司報告了更高的井生產率，而他們的油田服務提供商則報告了更低的鉆井活動。 

與此同時，美國能源信息署（EIA）將其對今年美國石油日總產量的預測上調至歷史最高的1280萬桶，高于此前預測的1260萬桶。據EIA估計，上周美國的石油日產量已經達到1260萬桶。

由于更低的鉆井成本，美國石油行業估計每年的石油產量將日增85萬桶。EIA還指出，油價上漲是推動美國石油產量增加的因素之一。

然而，分析人士指出，美國頁巖井的枯竭速度很快，需要更多的鉆井活動來抵消這一自然過程，同時大幅提高產量。但頁巖巨頭并沒有這么做，盡管價格上漲，他們仍堅守資本紀律。

所有這些都表明，無論美國今年的石油產量有多高，都不太可能高到足以對國際油價構成重大壓力，尤其是考慮到美國石油出口歷史新高的速度。

這些出口給油價基準帶來了下行壓力，但它也有其局限性：歐佩克+的兩大領導國原油出口量仍遠遠超過美國，而且兩國都對產量或出口設定了上限。沙特阿拉伯還警告說，它可能會進一步加大減產力度，以保持油價上漲。

這對頁巖鉆探商來說是個好消息。這讓他們有機會減少支出，增加產量，并通過向海外銷售更高的產量來賺取更多的錢，這要歸功于地緣政治沖突發生前最大的市場——歐洲——以及世界上最大的石油市場——亞洲——強勁而有彈性的需求。

李峻 譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Oil Majors Eye Higher Shale Output This Year

·     Major shale oil producers are looking to ramp up output this year, but a very significant production hike seems unlikely.

·     However high U.S. output goes this year, it is not very likely it would go high enough to put significant pressure on international prices.

·     An increase in well productivity may not be enough to offset lower drilling rates in the U.S. shale patch.

The latest earnings season saw several shale oil majors revise their output projections for the year. Surprisingly, they revised these projections upward. 

The revisions were attributed to higher well productivity that Bloomberg said in a recent report had come as a surprise. Thanks to that surprise, U.S. oil production was set for stronger than previously expected growth this year.

Or maybe not, if we are to believe analysts that Reuters polled on their take on the U.S. shale industry. According to these analysts, it would take more than a surprise reversal in well productivity trends to boost U.S. shale oil production meaningfully.

The “surprise” increase in well productivity may have been unexpected for the media, but it certainly wasn’t totally unexpected for the industry. The reason: those companies that reported such productivity improvements said they’d been working at improving their drilling efficiency. And they’ve seen results.

Pioneer Natural Resources, whose CEO Scott Sheffield last year warned that the shale boom is over, citing, among other things, well productivity.

Chevron reported record output for the second quarter as it focused on the Texas part of the Permian rather than the New Mexico side. The company expects 10% higher production from the Permian this year.

Yet the analysts polled by Reuters argue that this will not be enough to boost total U.S. output significantly, not at the current drilling rates, which remain subdued.

Oilfield services providers sounded the alarm last month. They said demand for these services in the shale patch was on the decline, with all three supermajors in the space—SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes—reporting a decline in business for North America.

“During the second quarter, we saw reduced frack activity that resulted in increased white space in our calendar,” Chris Wright, the chief executive of fracking major Liberty Energy, told the FT. Wright also said the company might need to reduce the number of its fracking fleet going forward if demand remained at the same level.

So, on the one hand, exploration and production companies are reporting higher well productivity rates while their oilfield service providers are reporting lower drilling activity.

Meanwhile, the EIA revised up its projection for this year’s U.S. oil total to a record 12.8 million bpd, up from an earlier forecast of 12.6 million bpd. Per EIA estimates, last week saw production hitting 12.6 million bpd already.

The industry itself appears to estimate the annual boost in production at 850,000 bpd, thanks to these longer laterals and lower drilling costs. The EIA also cites higher oil prices as drivers of higher production.

Yet analysts note the fast depletion rates of shale wells, noting that it would take a lot more active drilling to offset this natural process and boost production considerably at the same time. But shale majors are not doing this. They remain disciplined despite higher prices.

What all that suggests is that however high U.S. output goes this year, it is not very likely it would go high enough to put significant pressure on international prices, not least because of the record rate of U.S. oil exports.

These exports are putting downward pressure on benchmarks but, once again, it has its limits: Saudi Arabia remains a much bigger exporter of crude than the U.S., and so does his partner, and both have put caps on either production or exports. Saudi Arabia has also warned it could go a step further and deepen its production cuts to keep prices higher.

This is good news for shale drillers. It gives them the opportunity to spend less, pump more, and make more money by selling that higher output abroad thanks to robust and resilient demand in the former biggest market before the geopolitical conflicts – Europe – as well as the world’s biggest market for oil, Asia.